* 75,000 jobs could be at risk if 'hard Brexit' study says
* Speculation finance sector could lose access to single
* Treasury says working to keep firms' access
* Some see opportunity for the City in Brexit
(Adds Treasury comment)
By Andrew MacAskill
LONDON, Oct 5 Britain's financial industry could
lose up to 38 billion pounds ($48.34 billion) in revenue in a
so-called 'hard Brexit' that would leave it with restricted
access to the European Union's single market, according to a
report commissioned by an industry group.
If finance firms lose the right to freely sell their
services across Europe, 75,000 jobs may disappear and the
government may lose up to 10 billion pounds in tax revenue, the
report by consultancy firm Oliver Wyman said.
The study is one of the first to outline the impact on
financial services of Britain's vote in June to leave the EU.
The findings have been presented to the UK Treasury and
other government departments, according to people with knowledge
of the talks.
There is growing speculation that the finance sector, which
includes retail banks, asset managers, insurers and investment
banks, will lose access to the single market when the British
government negotiates its EU exit.
"It is in everyone's best interests for there to be a
positive outcome to the negotiations that is mutually beneficial
to the UK and the EU, causes minimum disruption to the industry
and benefits customers," Hector Sants, vice-chairman of Oliver
Wyman, and Britain's former top financial regulator, said.
The report was commissioned by the main industry lobby group
Banks based in Britain are pushing for the government to
secure a transitional period for their industry in case it
proves difficult to negotiate a favourable deal for the
The Treasury said in a statement it is working to ensure
companies continue to have access to the single market.
"The government has been speaking to the financial services
industry to make sure that we understand fully the issues that
matter to it as we prepare for negotiations to leave the EU,"
the Treasury said.
The future of London as Europe's financial centre will be a
major negotiating point in Brexit talks with the EU because it
is Britain's largest export sector and biggest source of tax
Britain's financial services sector generates between 190 to
205 billion pounds of revenue each year and employs about 1.1
million people, the report said. The industry pays about 60 to
67 billion pounds in taxes.
The report outlines the impact of two different Brexit
In the worst-case scenario, international banks would lose
all access to the single market, known as a 'hard Brexit', which
would lead to a fall in revenue of between 32 to 38 billion
pounds and put 65,000 to 75,000 jobs at risk, the report said.
If Britain keeps its access to the European Economic Area on
similar terms to now then only 4,000 jobs might disappear and it
would lose about 2 billion pounds in revenue.
Property investor Richard Tice, chairman of a new lobby
group pushing the government for a clean break with the EU, said
the report was exaggerated and other European capitals lacked
the infrastructure or skills to take financial services business
The report is "designed to scare people with special
pleading. However, it lacks credibility," he said. "Brexit is a
huge opportunity for the City."
Pro-Brexit supporters say the City could benefit from lower
regulation and by refocusing on faster-growing economies in
($1 = 0.7862 pounds)
(Reporting by Andrew MacAskill in London; Editing by Alistair
Bell and Jane Merriman)