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4 个月内
CEE MARKETS-Fx ease, bonds firm on weaker data, crown steadies
2017年4月4日 / 上午9点32分 / 4 个月内

CEE MARKETS-Fx ease, bonds firm on weaker data, crown steadies

7 分钟阅读

    * Crown joins forint, zloty easing
    * Bond yields at multi-month lows after CPI, PMI, retail
data
    * Inflation may soon enter retreat phase
    * Agrokor woes weigh on Croatian stocks ahead of parliament
debate

 (Adds plunge of Croatian stocks, new prices)
    By Sandor Peto and Jason Hovet
    BUDAPEST/PRAGUE, April 4 (Reuters) - Central European
currencies eased and bonds extended gains on Tuesday after a
batch of weaker-than-expected economic data.
    The zloty and the forint eased in tandem
by about 0.3 percent against the euro by 1453.
    After an initial 0.1 percent easing, the Czech crown
 steadied, and trading at 27.05 it was firmer by 0.1
percent. 
    The crown's volatility surged in the past week. It had
traded near 27 for most of the past three-and-a-half years,
after the CNB launched a cap at that level to fight deflation
risks.
    Its commitment to keep the weak crown regime expired on
Friday and now it can remove the cap any time.
    Speculation for a crown rise led to heavy buying of the
currency in the past months, but fears that it has been
overbought has lifted volatility in crown markets. 
    "There is a nervous mood in the market. Nobody knows when
the central bank will decide (on the end of the intervention
regime)," one dealer said. "The central bank is still sitting
around the 27.02 level. I don't think they are buying at higher
levels."
    The yield on Czech 10-year bonds dropped 8 basis points to
0.95 percent. Poland's corresponding yield touched 4-month lows
a shade below 3.4 percent.
    Expectations for a retreat in inflation in the region helped
bonds, one trader said.
    Poland was the first in the region to publish March
inflation data and the 2 percent annual figure published on
Friday was below analysts' 2.3 percent forecast.
    Monday's Czech, Hungarian and Polish PMI manufacturing index
figures for March showed steady economic growth, but were below
expectations.
    Hungary's statistics office said on Tuesday that the annual
rise in retail sales slowed to 1.2 percent in February from 3.8
percent in January.
    "We do not change our economic growth forecast, but negative
risks seem to strengthen," said Peter Virovacz, analyst of ING
in Budapest about the data in a note.
    Uncertainty over the future of troubled food and retail
group Agrokor weighed on Croatian equities ahead of Wednesday's
parliament discussion of a bill aimed at protecting the economy
against the failure of big firms.
    The Zagreb bourse's main index fell 1.6 percent,
with Agrokor unit ice cream maker Ledo leading the
decline, falling by 14 percent.
    
 7 basis      CEE        SNAPS   AT  1453          
 points t     MARKETS    HOT    CET           
                         CURRENCIES                
                         Lates  Previ  Daily  Chang
                         t      ous           e
                         bid    close  chang  in
                                       e      2017
 Czech crown             27.04  27.06   +0.0  -0.13
                            30     60     9%      %
 Hungary                 309.5  308.5  -0.33  -0.23
 forint                    400    050      %      %
 Polish                  4.257  4.245  -0.27  3.44%
 zloty                       4      8      %  
 Romanian                4.544  4.548   +0.0  -0.20
 leu                         0      3     9%      %
 Croatian                7.442  7.428  -0.18  1.52%
 kuna                        0      5      %  
 Serbian                 123.7  123.7  -0.02  -0.32
 dinar                     500    300      %      %
 Note: daily  calculate  previ  close  1800        
 change       d from     ous    at     CET    
                         STOCK                     
                         S                    
                         Lates  Previ  Daily  Chang
                         t      ous           e
                                close  chang  in
                                       e      2017
 Prague                  980.5  985.2  -0.48   +6.3
                             1      0      %     9%
 Budapest                31900  31788   +0.3  -0.32
                           .58    .40     5%      %
 Warsaw                  2230.  2219.   +0.4   +14.
                            03     88     6%    48%
 Bucharest               8170.  8155.   +0.1   +15.
                            96     65     9%    33%
 Ljubljana               786.2  775.4   +1.4   +9.5
                             4      1     0%     7%
 Zagreb                  2002.  2035.  -1.59   +0.4
                            88     31      %     0%
 Belgrade     <.BELEX15  729.5  730.0  -0.07   +1.7
              >              4      7      %     0%
 Sofia                   635.6  633.1   +0.4   +8.4
                             9      3     0%     0%
                         BONDS                     
                         Yield  Yield  Sprea  Daily
                                       d      
                         (bid)  chang  vs     chang
                                e      Bund   e in
 Czech                                        sprea
 Republic                                     d
   2-year     <CZ2YT=RR  -0.21  -0.02   +059   +0bp
              >              9      2    bps      s
   5-year     <CZ5YT=RR  0.091  -0.01   +056   +2bp
              >                     2    bps      s
   10-year    <CZ10YT=R  0.947  -0.08   +070  -5bps
              R>                         bps  
 Poland                                            
   2-year     <PL2YT=RR  #VALU  0.003  #VALU   +3bp
              >           E!            E!        s
   5-year     <PL5YT=RR  #VALU  -0.01  #VALU   +2bp
              >           E!        3   E!        s
   10-year    <PL10YT=R  #VALU  0.013  #VALU   +5bp
              R>          E!            E!        s
              FORWARD    RATE   AGREEMENT          
                         3x6    6x9    9x12   3M
                                              inter
                                              bank
 Czech Rep            <   0.28   0.32   0.36      0
              PRIBOR=>                        
 Hungary              <   0.21   0.26   0.36   0.18
              BUBOR=>                         
 Poland               <   1.77   1.79   1.81   1.73
              WIBOR=>                         
 Note: FRA    are for                              
 quotes       ask                             
              prices                          
 

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