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3 个月内
CEE MARKETS-Leu bucks FX easing, Romanian central bank seen holding fire
2017年5月5日 / 上午9点27分 / 3 个月内

CEE MARKETS-Leu bucks FX easing, Romanian central bank seen holding fire

7 分钟阅读

    * Leu rebound halts ahead of central bank meeting
    * Romanian central bank is seen keeping rates on hold
    * Crown eases, Czech PM reverses decision to resign

    By Sandor Peto
    BUDAPEST, May 5 (Reuters) - The leu, bucking an easing of
other Central European currencies, drifted sideways on Friday
ahead of a meeting of the Romanian central bank, which is
expected to keep interest rates on hold at record lows.
    Investors held their breath ahead of U.S. payroll figures
due at 1230 GMT, which could influence the closely-watched
euro/dollar cross.
    The leu traded at 4.546 against the euro, not
extending its rebound from Wednesday's one-month lows at 4.5525.
    Romanian senators on Thursday cancelled a plan to include
corruption offences in prison pardons. This was the second time
this year that planned legislation to ease rules on corruption
was withdrawn after street protests.
    Another worry for investors is that the leftist government's
drive to boost wages further could lift the budget deficit above
the European Union's ceiling, 3 percent of economic output.
    Analysts' consensus forecast for 1.7 percent inflation at
the end of the year is in line with the central bank's
projection, but the price index could rise further next year.

    Some analysts expect the Romanian central bank to start to
lift its interest rates before the end of the year, but on
Friday no change is expected in its interest rates or rhetoric.
    "Deficit worries are likely to accentuate as we progress
into the year, negatively affecting the EURRON and Romania's
financing costs," UniCredit analysts said in a note.
    "The EURRON seems to have transitioned to the new (weaker)
4.50-4.60 range since the beginning of 2017," they said.
    A rise in inflation across Central Europe since late 2016 is
unlikely to trigger monetary policy tightening soon.
    The Czech central bank (CNB), however, signalled on Thursday
that it may need to lift rates if the crown does not
firm from 27 against the euro, the level of a cap on the
currency, which the bank removed a month ago.
    "(Market interest) rates corrected down a bit after the CNB
press conference, however bids returned quickly as the threat of
the hike seems serious enough to start getting priced in..." one
Prague-based trader said.
    The crown eased in tandem with the forint and the
zloty, shedding 0.1 percent to 26.82.
    Investors have ignored the twists and turns of a Czech
government crisis months before October elections, which the
trader called "politics silly game".
    Prime Minister Bohuslav Sobotka on Friday reversed his
decision to resign, saying he would instead seek the removal of
Finance Minister Andrej Babis, his main political rival.

    Elsewhere, the stocks of Polish gas company PGNiG
plunged 5.6 percent in a sharp correction after hitting 18-month
highs on Thursday when Warsaw's blue-chip stock index 
reached a 23-month high.       
             CEE        SNAPS   AT  1052          
             MARKETS    HOT    CET           
                        CURRENCIES                
                        Lates  Previ  Daily  Chang
                        t      ous           e
                        bid    close  chang  in
                                      e      2017
 Czech                  26.82  26.80  -0.07  0.69%
 crown                     10     20      %  
 Hungary                312.2  312.0  -0.05  -1.09
 forint                   100    400      %      %
 Polish                 4.219  4.214  -0.11  4.38%
 zloty                      0      3      %  
 Romanian               4.546  4.547   +0.0  -0.24
 leu                        0      3     3%      %
 Croatian               7.430  7.436   +0.0  1.68%
 kuna                       0      5     9%  
 Serbian                123.1  123.2   +0.1  0.20%
 dinar                    000    250     0%  
 Note:       calculate  previ  close  1800        
 daily       d from     ous    at     CET    
 change                                      
                        STOCK                     
                        S                    
                        Lates  Previ  Daily  Chang
                        t      ous           e
                               close  chang  in
                                      e      2017
 Prague                 997.9  1001.  -0.38   +8.2
                            4     75      %     8%
 Budapest               32536  32289   +0.7   +1.6
                          .47    .85     6%     7%
 Warsaw                 2363.  2381.  -0.74   +21.
                           45     00      %    33%
 Bucharest              8266.  8235.   +0.3   +16.
                           26     90     7%    67%
 Ljubljana              777.9  778.6  -0.09   +8.4
                            5      3      %     1%
 Zagreb                 1888.  1892.  -0.23  -5.33
                           49     76      %      %
 Belgrade    <.BELEX15  713.9  715.7  -0.25  -0.47
             >              8      5      %      %
 Sofia                  664.1  663.5   +0.1   +13.
                            9      4     0%    26%
                        BONDS                     
                        Yield  Yield  Sprea  Daily
                                      d      
                        (bid)  chang  vs     chang
                               e      Bund   e in
 Czech                                       sprea
 Republic                                    d
   2-year    <CZ2YT=RR  -0.16  0.018   +055   +3bp
             >                          bps      s
   5-year    <CZ5YT=RR  -0.01      0   +033   +3bp
             >              8           bps      s
   10-year   <CZ10YT=R  0.818      0   +045   +2bp
             R>                         bps      s
 Poland                                           
   2-year    <PL2YT=RR   2.01  -0.00   +272   +1bp
             >                     2    bps      s
   5-year    <PL5YT=RR  2.912  -0.00   +326   +2bp
             >                     6    bps      s
   10-year   <PL10YT=R  3.472  -0.00   +310   +1bp
             R>                    6    bps      s
             FORWARD    RATE   AGREEMENT          
                        3x6    6x9    9x12   3M
                                             inter
                                             bank
 Czech Rep           <   0.34    0.4    0.5      0
             PRIBOR=>                        
 Hungary             <   0.25   0.34   0.44      0
             BUBOR=>                         
 Poland              <  1.753   1.79  1.832   1.73
             WIBOR=>                         
 Note: FRA   are for                              
 quotes      ask                             
             prices                          
 

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