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CEE MARKETS-Polish bonds firm as CPI below forecasts again
2017年5月31日 / 下午1点23分 / 5 个月内

CEE MARKETS-Polish bonds firm as CPI below forecasts again

    * Polish CPI, first figure for May from CEE, is below
forecasts
    * Low CPI underpins that central bank policy will remain
loose
    * Polish bonds firm, zloty steadies

 (Recasts with Polish GDP and CPI data)
    By Sandor Peto and Bartosz Chmielewski
    BUDAPEST/WARSAW, May 31 (Reuters) - Poland's 10-year
government bond price hit a 7-month high and the zloty steadied,
after May figures from Central Europe's biggest economy showed
lower than expected inflation in the second month in a row.
    Flash figures for May showed that Poland's annual inflation
dropped to 1.9 percent from 2 percent in April, though analysts
had expected a flat rate.
    This was the first inflation release for May in the region
where consumer inflation indices often move in tandem.
    April's lower-than-expected figures already boosted the
perceptions that most of the region's central banks will not
lift interest rates any time soon despite a pick-up in economic
growth.
    Other Polish data earlier on Wednesday confirmed that the
economy expanded by 4 percent in annual terms in the first
quarter.
    "We expect the MPC (Polish central bank) to remain
relatively dovish, especially (as the) inflation rate is
expected to stabilize below, but close to 2 percent in
(the)coming months," Erste analyst Katarzyna Rzentarzewska said
in a note after the output figures.
    "The key to watch will be labour market developments," she
said.
    The zloty was steady at 4.1704 against the euro at
1225 GMT, while the forint, the Czech crown
and the leu firmed 0.1-0.2 percent.
    "The data should underscore the ongoing goldilocks status of
the Polish economy with a strong, but not hot economy amidst a
stable inflation rate," said Raiffeisen analyst Stephan Imre
before the figures.
    The yield on Poland's 10-year bonds fell 3 basis points to
3.23 percent, narrowing the gap with Hungary's corresponding
yield, which rose 1 basis point to 3.04 percent.
    Stock prices were mostly flat or higher in the region, after
profit-taking shaved the past weeks' gains earlier this week.
    Poland led the rise. Warsaw's bluechip stock index
firmed 0.7 percent, led by an about 3 percent rise in the stocks
of PKO BP, the country's biggest lender.
     
                CEE MARKETS  SNAPSH   AT  1425 CET         
                             OT                      
                             CURRENCIES                    
                             Latest  Previo  Daily   Change
                                     us              
                             bid     close   change  in
                                                     2017
 Czech crown                 26.428  26.460   +0.12   2.19%
                                  0       5       %  
 Hungary                     307.13  307.74   +0.20   0.55%
 forint                          00      50       %  
 Polish zloty                4.1704  4.1712   +0.02   5.60%
                                                  %  
 Romanian leu                4.5665  4.5711   +0.10  -0.69%
                                                  %  
 Croatian kuna               7.4130  7.4183   +0.07   1.92%
                                                  %  
 Serbian dinar               122.42  122.58   +0.13   0.76%
                                 00      00       %  
 Note: daily    calculated   previo  close   1800          
 change         from         us      at      CET     
                             STOCKS                        
                             Latest  Previo  Daily   Change
                                     us              
                                     close   change  in
                                                     2017
 Prague                      1005.1  1006.1  -0.10%   +9.07
                                  6       5               %
 Budapest                    34396.  34321.   +0.22   +7.48
                                 11      14       %       %
 Warsaw                      2309.1  2292.2   +0.74   +18.5
                                  7       7       %      5%
 Bucharest                   8682.6  8688.5  -0.07%   +22.5
                                  9       0              5%
 Ljubljana                   786.54  782.22   +0.55   +9.61
                                                  %       %
 Zagreb                      1852.6  1854.0  -0.08%  -7.13%
                                  1       8          
 Belgrade                    725.85  719.15   +0.93   +1.18
                                                  %       %
 Sofia                       661.89  659.35   +0.39   +12.8
                                                  %      7%
                             BONDS                         
                             Yield   Yield   Spread  Daily
                             (bid)   change  vs      change
                                             Bund    in
 Czech                                               spread
 Republic                                            
   2-year                     -0.16   0.023   +055b   +2bps
                                                 ps  
   5-year                    -0.155  -0.028   +028b   -2bps
                                                 ps  
   10-year                    0.686  -0.052   +039b   -5bps
                                                 ps  
 Poland                                                    
   2-year                     1.908  -0.036   +262b   -4bps
                                                 ps  
   5-year                     2.664  -0.047   +310b   -4bps
                                                 ps  
   10-year                     3.24  -0.041   +295b   -4bps
                                                 ps  
                FORWARD      RATE    AGREEMENT             
                             3x6     6x9     9x12    3M
                                                     interb
                                                     ank
 Czech Rep              <PR    0.35    0.43    0.49       0
                IBOR=>                               
 Hungary                <BU    0.19    0.23    0.29    0.15
                BOR=>                                
 Poland                 <WI    1.75   1.764   1.795    1.73
                BOR=>                                
 Note: FRA      are for ask                                
 quotes         prices                               
 

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