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EMERGING MARKETS-FinMin exit hits S.Africa; EM stocks and FX enjoy strong Q1
2017年3月31日 / 早上8点48分 / 6 个月前

EMERGING MARKETS-FinMin exit hits S.Africa; EM stocks and FX enjoy strong Q1

LONDON, March 31 (Reuters) - South African assets took a tumble on Friday after President Jacob Zuma fired Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan following days of speculation, replacing him with the relatively unknown head of home affairs Malusi Gigaba.

The rand dropped as much as 2.4 percent in a fifth straight session of losses before regaining some ground against the dollar. It is poised for a weekly loss of nearly 8 percent -- its worst week in 15 months.

Local bonds were hit hard, with yields in the benchmark flirting with the 9 percent mark while Eurobond yields soared across the curve.

The sacking of Gordhan, seen as a steady and reliable hand in policymaking by investors, came as part of a wider cabinet reshuffle, the latest chapter exposing deepening rifts and divisions within the government of Africa’s most industrialised economy.

The turmoil comes as South Africa is facing reviews by credit ratings agencies that could see it lose investment-grade status and make it more costly to borrow.

“There could be potential political ramifications of the cabinet reshuffle, as reflected by indications by opposition parties for a vote of no-confidence and impeachment motion,” JPMorgan Chase’s Sonja Keller wrote in a note to clients.

She added that she did not expect a substantial shift in the policy framework in the next 12-18 months, although “this recent rhetoric may lead ratings agencies and market participants to perceive a greater level of policy uncertainty near-term”. JPMorgan Chase has cut its position in South African local bonds and currency to medium-weight from overweight, Keller said,

Poised for monthly losses, the rand was still on track to end the quarter 2 percent stronger as emerging market assets enjoyed a buoyant start to the year.

With the dollar on track for its worst quarter in a year, currencies elsewhere ended the week and month on a brighter note.

Russia’s rouble, up 0.3 percent on the day, was on track for a monthly rise of 4.5 percent and a quarterly gain of nearly 10 percent -- the strongest quarter since the start of 2012 -- as the country emerges from a bruising recession and supported by stabilising oil prices.

Turkey’s lira strengthened 0.3 percent as data showed the economy grew a greater-than-expected 2.9 percent in 2016, bouncing back in the final three months of the year after a contraction in the third quarter.

The lira is on track to eke out gains for a second month but not enough to make up for a dismal start to the year, and is poised for a fourth straight quarter of weakening.

Emerging stocks -- on track for the third consecutive months of gain and their best quarter since the start of 2012 -- fell 0.8 percent on the day, with bourses in Asia chalking up heavy losses.

For GRAPHIC on emerging market FX performance 2017, see tmsnrt.rs/2e7eoml For GRAPHIC on MSCI emerging index performance 2017, see tmsnrt.rs/2dZbdP5

For CENTRAL EUROPE market report, see

For TURKISH market report, see

For RUSSIAN market report, see) Emerging Markets Prices from Reuters Equities Latest Net Chg % Chg % Chg

on year

Morgan Stanley Emrg Mkt Indx 961.21 -8.26 -0.85 +11.47

Czech Rep 981.98 -1.69 -0.17 +6.55

Poland 2199.00 -10.10 -0.46 +12.89

Hungary 31895.89 -248.78 -0.77 -0.33

Romania 8054.19 +35.72 +0.45 +13.68

Greece 665.71 -4.71 -0.70 +3.43

Russia 1130.03 -7.23 -0.64 -1.94

South Africa 45318.78 +98.39 +0.22 +3.23

Turkey 89278.74 -3.51 +0.00 +14.26

China 3222.60 +12.37 +0.39 +3.83

India 29598.47 -48.95 -0.17 +11.16

Currencies Latest Prev Local Local

close currency currency

% change % change

in 2017

Czech Rep 27.04 27.12 +0.30 -0.13

Poland 4.22 4.21 -0.24 +4.34

Hungary 308.71 308.51 -0.06 +0.04

Romania 4.55 4.55 +0.06 -0.26

Serbia 123.77 123.85 +0.06 -0.34

Russia 56.02 56.08 +0.10 +9.36

Kazakhstan 313.20 314.81 +0.51 +6.53

Ukraine 27.01 26.95 -0.22 -0.04

South Africa 13.47 13.29 -1.36 +1.91

Kenya 102.80 102.90 +0.10 -0.42

Israel 3.63 3.63 -0.02 +6.08

Turkey 3.64 3.65 +0.23 -3.18

China 6.89 6.89 -0.07 +0.75

India 64.85 64.85 +0.00 +4.78

Brazil 3.15 3.15 -0.02 +3.32

Mexico 18.67 18.72 +0.23 +10.93

Debt Index Strip Spd Chg %Rtn Index

Sov‘gn Debt EMBIG 325 1 .11 7 69.37 1

Reporting by Karin Strohecker; Editing by Vin Shahrestani

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