| LONDON, Sept 15
LONDON, Sept 15 Emerging stocks inched lower for
the fifth straight day on Thursday amid unease over steeper
developed market yield curves and crucial central bank meetings
next week in the United States and Japan.
Expectations of a U.S. rate rise at next week's Federal
Reserve meeting remain low, with a move seen more likely in
December. Also, the Bank of Japan may tweak its negative-rates
and asset-buying policies and announce moves to steepen its bond
Already, the U.S. yield curve, reflected in the gap between
five and 30-year yields, is near its steepest since July 1,
while Japan's two-year/30-year spread rose this week to 86 basis
points, the steepest curve since mid-March.
A steeper U.S. curve strengthens the appeal of risk-free
bonds and usually hurts the case for holding lower quality
MSCI's emerging equity index slipped 0.2 percent
to stand 5 percent below 13-month highs hit last week. Sovereign
dollar bond yield spreads over Treasuries have widened almost 20
basis points (bps) over the past week to one-month highs around
Peter Kinsella, head of emerging markets research at
Commerzbank, noted that last week's ECB meeting did not signal
extra stimulus, some Fed officials had made hawkish comments and
Japan had hinted at the need to steepen its yield curve.
"The tailwind for asset prices is not as strong as it was.
We have had more hawkish rhetoric from the Fed, which has led to
profit taking in risky assets and all the high-beta stories in
emerging markets have taken a backseat," Kinsella said.
But with inflation and growth still weak, scope for further
yield steepening appeared limited, he added.
Analysts at BNP Paribas agreed but said steeper U.S. and
Japanese curves were the key focus point for emerging markets.
The primary concern is that G2 curves steepening can lead to
a "tapering" effect in emerging markets, "similar to what we saw
in 2013", BNP Paribas told clients.
With the dollar index up 0.2 percent most emerging
currencies slipped, with rand the biggest casualty with a 0.35
Earlier, the Indian rupee fell sharply after a television
channel reported the commerce ministry will propose a
devaluation to promote exports, but it trimmed losses after a
finance ministry denial to stand 0.3 percent lower.
On bond markets Ukrainian bonds firmed around a quarter cent
across the curve after the International Monetary Fund approved
a $1 billion loan tranche, though this was less than the $1.7
billion that was originally anticipated.
In other bond news, the shaky global backdrop has apparently
prompted Russian companies Otkritie and Global Ports to postpone
Two deals struggled on Wednesday, with Afrexim Bank slashing
the deal size to $150 million and the State Bank of India
cutting its bond to $300 million from $500 million after pricing
expectations were seen as unrealistic.
For GRAPHIC on emerging market FX performance 2016, see link.reuters.com/jus35t
For GRAPHIC on MSCI emerging index performance 2016, see link.reuters.com/weh36s
For GRAPHIC on MSCI emerging Europe performance 2016, see link.reuters.com/jun28s
For GRAPHIC on MSCI frontier index performance 2016, see link.reuters.com/zyh97s
For CENTRAL EUROPE market report, see
For TURKISH market report, see
For RUSSIAN market report, see )
Emerging Markets Prices from Reuters
Equities Latest Net Chg % Chg % Chg
Emrg Mkt Indx 883.36 -1.78 -0.20 +11.23
Czech Rep 868.79 +1.32 +0.15 -9.15
Poland 1740.48 +3.80 +0.22 -6.38
Hungary 28026.45 -68.90 -0.25 +17.16
Romania 6949.53 +18.47 +0.27 -0.78
Greece 557.39 +1.26 +0.23 -11.71
Russia 964.21 -6.35 -0.65 +27.37
South Africa 45942.02 -43.05 -0.09 +0.32
Turkey 77053.54 -789.95 -1.01 +7.43
China 3002.67 -20.84 -0.69 -15.16
India 28341.33 -30.90 -0.11 +8.51
Currencies Latest Prev Local Local
close currency currency
% change % change
Czech Rep 27.02 27.01 -0.03 -0.09
Poland 4.33 4.33 +0.10 -1.67
Hungary 309.96 309.63 -0.11 +1.51
Romania 4.45 4.44 -0.06 +1.64
Serbia 123.05 122.97 -0.07 -1.28
Russia 65.23 65.17 -0.09 +11.84
Kazakhstan 339.63 337.80 -0.54 +0.26
Ukraine 26.16 26.33 +0.65 -8.44
South Africa 14.35 14.32 -0.25 +7.73
Kenya 101.20 101.10 -0.10 +0.99
Israel 3.78 3.78 +0.00 +2.73
Turkey 2.98 2.98 -0.15 -2.22
China 6.67 6.67 +0.00 -2.68
India 67.01 66.79 -0.32 -1.20
Brazil 3.34 3.34 +0.00 +18.47
Mexico 19.38 19.27 -0.56 -11.41
Debt Index Strip Spd Chg %Rtn Index
Sov'gn Debt EMBIG 368 -1 .04 7 60.23 1
All data taken from Reuters at 08:37 GMT.
Currency percent change calculated from the daily U.S. close at
(Editing by Raissa Kasolowsky)