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EMERGING MARKETS-Emerging assets gain on weaker dollar, Fed outlook

By Karin Strohecker
    LONDON, Oct 18 Emerging stocks and currencies
made solid gains on Tuesday as a pause in the dollar's rally,
more cautious comments from a  senior U.S. central banker and
stronger commodity prices fuelled investors' risk appetite.
    MSCI's emerging benchmark jumped 1.3 percent
higher - its steepest daily rise in nearly four weeks - with
bourses in Asia showing some stellar gains. Mainland China
  and Hong Kong stocks added around 1.5
percent, while Philippine stocks rose nearly 3 percent.
    Stocks in Russia gained around 1 percent, while
bourses in South Africa and Turkey nearly
matched the rise. 
    U.S. Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer struck a
cautious tone in comments on Monday, saying that low interest
rates could threaten economic stability but that it was "not
that simple" for the Fed to hike rates. 
    "We are seeing dollar strength ease back with positive
implications for emerging markets and risk appetite in general,"
said Roxana Hulea, EM strategist at Societe Generale.
    "This is happening after quite a few weeks of a weaker tone
in emerging assets coming from pressure on core rates going
higher, doubts over global monetary policy and even concerns
about inflation going higher."
    Emerging assets have been under pressure from the growing
likelihood of a U.S. rate hike in December as well as from
recent comments by Fed chair Janet Yellen that pushed U.S.
Treasury yields higher and the dollar to near seven-month peaks.
 
    Currencies broadly strengthened against the greenback, with
South Africa's rand jumping 0.8 percent in its second day
of gains while Russia's rouble gained 0.5 percent, mirroring a
rise in oil prices. 
    However, China's yuan hit another six-year low ahead
of third-quarter GDP data due out on Wednesday, with investors
nervous following last week's disappointing trade data. 
    Turkey's lira traded flat after a seven-day losing
streak, which had seen it hit record lows several times ahead of
a central bank meeting on Thursday.
    The lira has weakened nearly 6 percent since the start of
the year, though many analysts expect policymakers to cut
interest rates again. 
    "The sharp fall in headline inflation to 7.28 percent
year-on-year in September from a prior 8.05 percent will be used
as a justification for further easing," TD Securities wrote in a
recent note to clients. 
    "There is constant political pressure for lower rates."
    Across central and eastern Europe, currencies traded flat to
slightly stronger against the euro.
    Romania's leu tested recent three-month lows ahead
of a final vote in parliament to approve a bill to help Swiss
franc borrowers convert their mortgage loans into local currency
at historical rates. 
    On debt markets, Saudi Arabia is scheduled to wrap up its
meetings with investors ahead of its first international bond
sale. The issue is expected to raise $10 billion or more later
in the week in what looks to be one of the largest debt sales by
an emerging market economy.  
    
     Emerging Markets Prices from Reuters            
 Equities                  Latest    Net Chg  % Chg  % Chg      
     
                                                     on year    
       
 Morgan Stanley               
 Emrg Mkt Indx    906.20   +11.49   +1.28  +14.11     
       
 Czech Rep            912.72    +5.75   +0.63   -4.56     
       
 Poland           1729.03   +14.83   +0.87   -7.00     
       
 Hungary           28818.88  +205.93   +0.72  +20.48     
       
 Romania           6842.35   -25.67   -0.37   -2.31     
       
 Greece              595.07    +9.01   +1.54   -5.75     
       
 Russia             989.37   +12.07   +1.24  +30.69     
       
 South Africa    44573.02  +319.87   +0.72   -2.67     
       
 Turkey          78070.43  +632.85   +0.82   +8.84     
       
 China             3083.09   +41.92   +1.38  -12.89     
       
 India           27968.17  +438.20   +1.59   +7.09     
       
            
 Currencies              Latest    Prev    Local    Local       
      
                                   close   currency currency    
       
                                           % change % change    
       
                                                    in 2016     
      
 Czech Rep      27.01     27.02   +0.03    -0.04      
     
 Poland          4.31      4.32   +0.15    -1.31      
     
 Hungary       306.53    306.55   +0.01    +2.65      
     
 Romania         4.51      4.51   +0.10    +0.27      
     
 Serbia        123.02    123.10   +0.07    -1.26      
     
 Russia            62.83     63.13   +0.48   +16.11      
     
 Kazakhstan       332.36    332.20   -0.05    +2.45      
     
 Ukraine           25.65     25.71   +0.23    -6.62      
     
 South Africa      14.04     14.14   +0.72   +10.12      
     
 Kenya            101.22    101.20   -0.02    +0.97      
     
 Israel             3.81      3.83   +0.33    +1.97      
     
 Turkey             3.10      3.10   -0.00    -5.76      
     
 China              6.74      6.74   -0.04    -3.65      
     
 India             66.70     66.78   +0.13    -0.74      
     
 Brazil             3.20      3.20   -0.12   +23.56      
     
 Mexico            18.75     18.85   +0.53    -8.41      
     
            
 Debt                 Index   Strip Spd  Chg   %Rtn   Index     
       
 Sov'gn Debt  EMBIG   362        -1    .01  7 63.50 1   
        
            
 All data taken from Reuters at 09:22 GMT.            
 Currency percent change calculated from the daily U.S.         
  
 close at 2130 GMT.            
               
    For GRAPHIC on emerging market FX performance 2016, see link.reuters.com/jus35t
    For GRAPHIC on MSCI emerging index performance 2016, see link.reuters.com/weh36s
    For GRAPHIC on MSCI emerging Europe performance 2016, see link.reuters.com/jun28s
    For GRAPHIC on MSCI frontier index performance 2016, see link.reuters.com/zyh97s
    For CENTRAL EUROPE market report, see 
    For TURKISH market report, see 
    For RUSSIAN market report, see )

 (Additional reporting by Claire Milhench; Editing by Hugh
Lawson)

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