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EMERGING MARKETS-China, Turkey FX extend losses to buck firmer emerging markets

By Karin Strohecker
    LONDON, Nov 21 Emerging stocks and currencies
struggled higher on Monday as the post-U.S. election rise in the
dollar and U.S. yields lost some steam, though China's yuan and
Turkey's lira extended losses, the former approaching 8-1/2 year
lows.
    Republican Donald Trump's unexpected election victory has
led to a major repricing of assets, with investors rushing to
snap up U.S. stocks and the dollar in anticipation of higher
infrastructure spending pushing up inflation. At the same time,
they have been dumping bonds and emerging markets.
    Emerging stocks, which have lost 6 percent since
Trump secured the keys to the White House, rose 0.2 percent with
gains in Russia, South Africa and China 
offsetting losses in India and Turkey.  
    Indian shares fell 1.8 percent as uncertainty grew
about the full impact of the government's recent demonetisation
move 
    Many currencies such as South Africa's rand, the
Mexican peso and Russia's rouble, strengthened
against the dollar, which pulled back from the
13-1/2-year peak it hit last week. 
    But China's yuan weakened to nearly an 8-1/2-year low
as the central bank set its daily guidance rate 
weaker for a 12th straight session.
    "The dollar index is at levels last seen in 2001, so it
doesn't surprise me (China) are letting the yuan weaken against
the dollar," said Per Hammarlund, chief emerging markets
strategist at SEB, adding there was a danger the weaker yuan
could prompt more outflows from China. 
    "If they let this go much further, it could spook the
market." 
    Investors are preparing for more weakness. Dollar-yuan
non-deliverable forwards, a derivative used to
hedge against future exchange rate moves, are up 2 percent since
the start of the month and price the yuan just above 7 per
dollar in six months time versus the spot rate of around 6.89.
    At a meeting of Pacific Rim leaders over the weekend,
Chinese officials said more countries were looking to join a
China-led trading bloc. 
    "China's comments at the APEC summit underpin the country's
apparent desire to take over any vacuum that a U.S. global trade
back-tracking would bring," said Simon Quijano-Evans, emerging
market strategist at Legal & General Investment Management.
    "A tough one for Asian neighbours that have been positioning
themselves between China and the U.S."
    In Turkey, the lira took another beating to weaken
0.3 percent, edging back towards the record low hit on Friday as
domestic woes exacerbate a tense macro-economic backdrop. 
    This week the governing AKP party will meet with the
nationalist opposition MHP to discuss plans to hand President
Tayyip Erdogan more power, while the EU parliament debates
freezing Ankara's talks on joining the bloc .
    A central bank meeting has markets divided on whether policy
makers could hike interest rates for the first time in almost
three years. 
    Meanwhile in Mexico, which has seen its assets in the
crosshairs thanks to Trump's tough anti-globalisation talk on
the campaign trail, the peso strengthened for the second
straight session, up 0.5 percent. 
    Data from Nigeria showed that the recession deepened in the
third quarter as the economy contracted 2.24 percent and oil
production also fell. 
    Africa's largest economy slid into recession for the first
time in 25 years in the second quarter, when a slump in crude
prices contributed to a 2.06-percent contraction in the economy.
    Across central and eastern Europe, currencies firmed
slightly against the euro, but hovered near the multi-month lows
reached after Trump's win .
    
  Emerging Markets Prices from Reuters            
 Equities                  Latest    Net Chg  % Chg  % Chg      
     
                                                     on year    
       
 Morgan Stanley               
 Emrg Mkt Indx    846.17    +1.64   +0.19   +6.55     
       
 Czech Rep            882.55    -1.86   -0.21   -7.71     
       
 Poland           1742.15   +16.41   +0.95   -6.29     
       
 Hungary           30107.44    -1.58   -0.01  +25.86     
       
 Romania           6844.50   +20.31   +0.30   -2.28     
       
 Greece              612.57    +0.64   +0.10   -2.97     
       
 Russia            1005.29   +14.52   +1.47  +32.79     
       
 South Africa    44237.65   +21.09   +0.05   -3.41     
       
 Turkey          75431.59  -207.37   -0.27   +5.16     
       
 China             3218.21   +25.35   +0.79   -9.07     
       
 India           25775.61  -374.63   -1.43   -1.31     
       
            
 Currencies              Latest    Prev    Local    Local       
      
                                   close   currency currency    
       
                                           % change % change    
       
                                                    in 2016     
      
 Czech Rep      27.06     27.02   -0.17    -0.23      
     
 Poland          4.43      4.44   +0.12    -3.94      
     
 Hungary       309.00    308.64   -0.12    +1.83      
     
 Romania         4.51      4.51   +0.02    +0.20      
     
 Serbia        123.12    123.15   +0.02    -1.34      
     
 Russia            64.21     64.65   +0.69   +13.62      
     
 Kazakhstan       338.45    340.80   +0.69    +0.61      
     
 Ukraine           25.76     25.85   +0.35    -7.02      
     
 South Africa      14.23     14.47   +1.70    +8.67      
     
 Kenya            101.78    101.70   -0.08    +0.41      
     
 Israel             3.87      3.88   +0.28    +0.48      
     
 Turkey             3.37      3.37   +0.04   -13.53      
     
 China              6.90      6.89   -0.11    -5.85      
     
 India             68.14     68.18   +0.06    -2.85      
     
 Brazil             3.38      3.38   +0.15   +17.23      
     
 Mexico            20.46     20.63   +0.81   -16.08      
     
            
 Debt                 Index   Strip Spd  Chg   %Rtn   Index     
       
 Sov'gn Debt  EMBIG   387         2    .02  7 27.97 1   
        
            
 All data taken from Reuters at 10:04 GMT. Currency percent
change calculated from the daily U.S. close at 2130 GMT.
        
For GRAPHIC on emerging market FX performance 2016, see tmsnrt.rs/2e7eoml

For GRAPHIC on MSCI emerging index performance 2016, see tmsnrt.rs/2dZbdP5
    
    For CENTRAL EUROPE market report, see 
    For TURKISH market report, see 
    For RUSSIAN market report, see )

 (Additional reporting by Claire Milhench; Editing by Mark
Trevelyan)

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