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EMERGING MARKETS-Rand, lira and rouble rout rumbles on
2017年7月7日 / 上午9点50分 / 16 天内

EMERGING MARKETS-Rand, lira and rouble rout rumbles on

4 分钟阅读

* Rand, rouble, lira continue to slide

* EM stocks down for second week

* Trump and Putin meet at G20 meeting

* China FX reserves rise

By Marc Jones

LONDON, July 7 (Reuters) - More falls for the rand, rouble and lira capped what was set to be one of the worst weeks of the year for emerging markets on Friday, with investors - who have seen billions of dollars wiped off portfolios - bracing for more turbulence ahead.

With nervousness rising about higher global interest rates ahead of U.S. jobs data, Russia's rouble and Turkey's lira were both down for a fifth day and roughly 2 and 3 percent respectively for the week.

South Africa's rand racked up a 3 percent weekly loss as worries continued about its central bank's independence, plans for land redistribution without compensation as well a lack of drive for much-needed economic reforms.

MSCI's 24-country emerging market share index dropped 0.4 percent, falling for a second day and week running, while emerging sovereign bond spreads over U.S. Treasuries -- the premium investors demand to buy EM debt -- hovered at their highest in two weeks.

EM stocks surged more than 15 percent in the first half of the year but the MSCI index has now lost $100 billion over the last month.

"This may be the beginning of a larger dollar up move against emerging market currencies," said Commerzbank FX technicals analyst Axel Rudolph.

He said downtrend lines had now been broken on both dollar-lira and dollar-rand charts and if the greenback got above highs hit earlier in the month against the likes of the euro, it would be confirmation that it was on the rise again.

Most Asian currencies also traded cautiously overnight as investors awaited the U.S. June jobs report, the Bank of Japan boosted its bond buying programme but the European Central Bank (ECB) signalled it was edging closer to scaling its back.

There was much focus too on the first face-to-face meeting between Donald Trump and Russia's Vladimir Putin since Trump became U.S. President.

The rouble drop on the day took it to a five-month low of 60.49 versus the dollar. Russian stocks were also down with the dollar-denominated RTS index 1.8 percent lower and the rouble-based MICEX off 0.9 percent at 1,906 points.

Analysts at Binbank said in a note that the rouble could firm up below the psychologically important threshold of 60 against the dollar if the Putin-Trump meeting goes well.

The rouble is also under pressure from unexpectedly high inflation, which hit 4.4 percent in June, challenging the central bank's aim of bringing it to a post-Soviet low of 4 percent this year.

"The Russian central bank is now more likely to pause its rate cuts in July to address the inflationary shock," analysts at Alfa Bank said in a note.

Other tensions which have buffeted emerging markets over the last few weeks were also rumbling on. The Unites States said it was increasingly concerned that a rift between Qatar and other Arab states could drag on for a long time.

South Korean President Moon Jae-in said it was time for North Korea to decide whether it wanted dialogue or not.

Chinese data showed its foreign exchange reserves rose modestly in June to $3.057 trillion. It was its fifth straight monthly rise, although by slightly less than economists had expected. The yuan was heading for a modest weekly fall while Chinese stocks ended mixed as they snapped a two-week winning streak.

For GRAPHIC on emerging market FX performance 2017, see tmsnrt.rs/2e7eoml For GRAPHIC on MSCI emerging index performance 2017, see tmsnrt.rs/2dZbdP5

For CENTRAL EUROPE market report, see

For TURKISH market report, see

For RUSSIAN market report, see) (Additional reporting by Polina Nikolskaya in Moscow; Editing by Robin Pomeroy)

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