| NEW YORK
NEW YORK Nov 16 President-elect Donald Trump
will last no more than four years in the White House, a period
when corporations and Wall Street will retain the upper hand
over the struggling workers who helped elect him in a populist
wave, bond manager Bill Gross of Janus Capital Group Inc
said on Wednesday.
In his monthly investment outlook, "Populism Takes a Wrong
Turn," Gross also said "there is no new Trump bull market in the
offing," and that global diversified investors should be
"satisfied" with 3 percent to 5 percent annual returns.
"The Trumpian Fox has entered the Populist Henhouse, not so
much by stealth but as a result of Middle America's
misinterpretation of what will make America great again," Gross
"[Trump's] tenure will be a short four years but is likely
to be a damaging one for jobless and low-wage American voters,"
Gross added. "I write in amazed, almost amused bewilderment at
what American voters have done to themselves."
Gross became the world's most famous bond fund manager at
Allianz SE's Pacific Investment Management Co, where
he ran Pimco Total Return and worked until 2014, when
he joined Janus.
He now oversees the $1.7 billion Janus Global Unconstrained
In his outlook, Gross said he did not vote for the
Republican Trump or Democratic rival Hillary Clinton, and
admitted that Clinton probably would not have done much better
redistributing wages toward the working class.
He said it was "doubtful" that Trump's plan to repatriate
huge corporate profits to the United States for infrastructure
spending would succeed, saying that a similar effort in 2004
resulted in large stock buybacks, dividend payouts and corporate
bonuses, but no noticeable pickup in investment.
Gross said Trump's policies mark a "continuation of the
status quo," and that government could step in with a "Help
America" jobs program to bolster labor in ways that
overleveraged, cost-conscious corporations might not.
Regardless, Gross said "populism is on the march" and could
last for decades unless workers' share of gross domestic product
reverses its downward trend. Trump's immigration, tax and trade
policies might not promote that outcome, he said.
"Global populism is the wave of the future, but it has taken
a wrong turn in America," he wrote.
"Investors must drive with caution, understanding that
higher deficits resulting from lower taxes raise interest rates
and inflation, which in turn have the potential to produce lower
earnings and P/E (price-earnings) ratios," Gross added.
Gross' fund through Monday returned 4.5 percent this year,
outpacing 68 percent of its peers, according to Morningstar Inc
data. Janus last month announced a plan to merge with
London-based Henderson Group Plc.
(Reporting by Jonathan Stempel in New York; Editing by Bernard