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2 年前
Fitch Affirms Switzerland at 'AAA'; Outlook Stable
2015年5月1日 / 晚上8点04分 / 2 年前

Fitch Affirms Switzerland at 'AAA'; Outlook Stable

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(The following statement was released by the rating agency) LONDON, May 01 (Fitch) Fitch Ratings has affirmed Switzerland's Long-term foreign and local currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at 'AAA'. The issue ratings on Switzerland's senior unsecured foreign and local currency bonds are also affirmed at 'AAA'. The Outlooks on the Long-term IDRs are Stable. The Country Ceiling is affirmed at 'AAA' and the Short-term foreign currency IDR at 'F1+'. KEY RATING DRIVERS Switzerland's 'AAA' rating reflects its track record of prudent economic and fiscal policies, a diversified and wealthy economy, and high levels of human development. Switzerland surpasses its 'AAA' peers on most indicators. GDP per capita is 1.5x the 'AAA' median. General government debt is low (33.8% of GDP forecast for 2015) and falling. A net external creditor position of 142% of GDP is underpinned by a history of current account surpluses and the Swiss franc's status as a global reserve currency. We expect Swiss GDP to grow 0.9% in 2015 and 1.6% in 2016, driven primarily by strong private consumption growth. We expect the Swiss economy to avoid recession despite the business uncertainty and loss of competitiveness following the SNB's discontinuation of the franc/euro exchange rate ceiling, which led to a 8.9% appreciation of the franc in trade-weighted terms. We believe that the SNB has the flexibility and capacity to respond to further adverse shocks to the exchange rate, inflation, and growth. Over the last six months, it has introduced a -0.75% rate on sight deposits and a target range for three-month LIBOR of between -1.25% and -0.25%. We have revised down our forecast for annual average HICP inflation to -1% in 2015 and 0% in 2016, following the sharp appreciation of the exchange rate and revised oil price forecasts. Nevertheless, we view the emergence of a pernicious deflationary spiral as unlikely in Switzerland, given buoyant domestic demand, credit growth dynamics and that the price declines are mostly being seen for imported goods. Average inflation for domestic goods in the first quarter was 0.5%, in line with our previous forecast for 2015. The growth rates of real estate prices and private credit slowed somewhat in 2015. Though real estate prices remain at high levels, regulation and generally prudent bank lending practices have restrained the build-up of imbalances. The low interest rate environment supports yield-seeking demand for real estate, and we expect this to somewhat offset the effects of weakening net immigration and a softening labour market. The franc appreciation and the introduction of negative interest rates have so far had a limited impact on the banking system. This is due to the diversified nature of large banking groups and the high threshold above which negative interest rates are being applied. However, large interest rate and mortgage affordability risks have built up in the financial system. Although not all practical aspects of the too big-to-fail bank resolution regime have yet been fully put in place, we expect implementation to continue. RATING SENSITIVITIES The Stable Outlook reflects Fitch's assessment that the downside risks to the 'AAA' rating are currently not material. Nonetheless, a negative rating action could result from a material shock to the financial sector, for example due to a sharp correction in the Swiss residential real estate market, or large losses on trading and international lending portfolios. KEY ASSUMPTIONS In February 2014, Switzerland voted in a referendum to impose a quota on immigration by 2017. This would likely contravene Switzerland's Free Movement of Persons Agreement (FMPA) with the EU and could endanger other treaties with the EU, many of which are mutually dependent. In February 2015, the Federal Council approved draft legislation that provides the general framework for imposing caps on immigration, but left the regulation of immigration from the EU open to negotiation. We assume that the EU and Switzerland will not permit a costly rupture of economic relations even if they cannot agree on amending the FMPA. Lengthening life expectancies and an environment of extremely low interest rates weigh on the sustainability of the Swiss pension system and public finances over the longer term. We assume that the reforms necessary to ensure sustainability are passed before demographic pressures significantly erode the fiscal position. Contact: Primary Analyst Krisjanis Krustins Analyst +44 203 530 1487 Fitch Ratings Limited 30 North Colonnade London E14 5GN Secondary Analyst Enam Ahmed Director +44 203 530 1624 Committee Chairperson Shelly Shetty Senior Director +1 212 908 0324 Media Relations: Peter Fitzpatrick, London, Tel: +44 20 3530 1103, Email: peter.fitzpatrick@fitchratings.com. Additional information is available on www.fitchratings.com Applicable criteria, 'Sovereign Rating Criteria' dated 12 August 2014 and 'Country Ceilings' dated 28 August 2014, are available at www.fitchratings.com. Applicable Criteria and Related Research: Sovereign Rating Criteria here Country Ceilings here Additional Disclosure Solicitation Status here ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. PLEASE READ THESE LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS BY FOLLOWING THIS LINK: here. IN ADDITION, RATING DEFINITIONS AND THE TERMS OF USE OF SUCH RATINGS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE AGENCY'S PUBLIC WEBSITE 'WWW.FITCHRATINGS.COM'. PUBLISHED RATINGS, CRITERIA AND METHODOLOGIES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THIS SITE AT ALL TIMES. FITCH'S CODE OF CONDUCT, CONFIDENTIALITY, CONFLICTS OF INTEREST, AFFILIATE FIREWALL, COMPLIANCE AND OTHER RELEVANT POLICIES AND PROCEDURES ARE ALSO AVAILABLE FROM THE 'CODE OF CONDUCT' SECTION OF THIS SITE. FITCH MAY HAVE PROVIDED ANOTHER PERMISSIBLE SERVICE TO THE RATED ENTITY OR ITS RELATED THIRD PARTIES. DETAILS OF THIS SERVICE FOR RATINGS FOR WHICH THE LEAD ANALYST IS BASED IN AN EU-REGISTERED ENTITY CAN BE FOUND ON THE ENTITY SUMMARY PAGE FOR THIS ISSUER ON THE FITCH WEBSITE.

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