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FOREX-Dollar falls as U.S. housing data dents Fed taper view
2013年8月23日 / 下午4点45分 / 4 年前

FOREX-Dollar falls as U.S. housing data dents Fed taper view

* U.S. new home sales fall sharply, hurt dollar
    * Gap between 2-year US/Japan bond yield at 1-1/2-year high
    * Euro hits 1-month high vs yen, Nowotny's comments help


    By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
    NEW YORK, Aug 23 (Reuters) - The dollar fell against a
basket of currencies on Friday, falling from a three-week peak
against the yen, as a steep drop in U.S. new home sales raised
doubts that the Federal Reserve will actually reduce its
asset-buying program next month.
    An already buoyant euro hit $1.34 following the earlier
release of U.S. housing data, with investors also selling the
greenback against other currencies such as the Swiss franc and
Australian dollar.
    The dollar also slipped 0.2 percent against a basket of six
major currencies to 81.325.
    New U.S. home sales slid 13.4 percent in July to their
lowest in nine months, hurt by the rise in U.S. mortgage rates.
 The data depicted an economy that may not be as
robust as many seem to think, which could persuade the Fed to
delay winding down its stimulus program.
    "This report makes it look more likely that tapering will
come later rather than sooner, perhaps under the leadership of a
new Fed chair," said Douglas Borthwick, managing director of
Chapdelaine Foreign Exchange in New York.
    He added that the Fed's so-called quantitative easing should
be scaled back when the U.S. economy is on a more solid footing.
    "Too often there is a push to end QE on the release of a
good number. One good number does not make a trend and as we can
see from this morning's new home sales report, the wealth effect
... is still wanting on the housing front," Borthwick added.
    The greenback has been well-supported the last few weeks on
expectations of a Fed stimulus tapering in September. Minutes of
the Fed's July meeting showed differences of opinion among
members of the Federal Open Market Committee as to when the
central bank should wind down, but the report did not change the
market's prevailing view.
    The euro, meanwhile, rose against most currencies, helped by
earlier comments from European Central Bank policymaker Ewald
Nowotny, who said he did not see much reason for the ECB to cut
interest rates. He spoke after surveys showed euro zone economic
activity quickening. 
    The euro last traded 0.3 percent higher against the
dollar to $1.3393. On the week, the euro was up 0.5 percent and
0.7 percent firmer so far in August.
    The euro had set a six-month high of $1.3453 against the
dollar earlier this week, supported by a recent improvement in
euro zone economic data. A second reading of German gross
domestic product confirmed that Europe's biggest economy grew by
0.7 percent in the second quarter, helped by domestic demand.
 
    The recent pickup has pushed euro zone money market rates
higher and if sustained is likely to challenge the effectiveness
of the ECB's pledge to keep rates low until a full-fledged
recovery is in place.    
    The dollar edged lower against the yen to 98.59 yen
after hitting a three-week high of 99.15 yen on the Reuters
trading platform.
    But the dollar is still heavily favored by investors over
the yen this year. The gap between two-year U.S. Treasury yields
 and their counterpart in Japanese government bonds
 moved to its widest since March 2012 and should
encourage more investors in Japan to buy U.S. Treasuries,
analysts said.
    Sebastien Galy, currency strategist at Societe Generale in
New York, said "there has been a tick-by-tick correlation
between dollar/yen and U.S. bond yields, which has certainly
supported that pair."
    So far this year, the dollar has gained 13.7 percent against
the yen.
    Galy also said the market consensus right now is for a Fed
tapering in September and a reduction of about $20 billion. But
he noted that SocGen  expects the Fed to go slow and start with
a $10 billion reduction in asset purchases.
    "There is no reason to be aggressive at the beginning of
tapering. It makes more sense to wait it out and see the impact
on the market," said Galy.
    Europe's common currency was also up 0.2 percent against the
yen at 132.06 yen, after touching a one-month high of
132.42.

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