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CEE MARKETS-Forint opens week lower, all eyes on central bank
2017年9月18日 / 上午9点09分 / 1 个月前

CEE MARKETS-Forint opens week lower, all eyes on central bank

    By Krisztina  Than
    BUDAPEST, Sept 18 (Reuters) - The forint opened the week a
touch weaker, with investors positioning for the Hungarian
central bank's meeting on Tuesday where it is expected to loosen
monetary conditions further against the backdrop of benign
inflation.
    The forint has lost more than 2 percent of its value since
late August after the National Bank of Hungary flagged another
round of easing. 
    In a Sept. 11-13 Reuters survey, all analysts said the bank
would keep its base rate unchanged at a record-low 0.9 percent
. But several analysts said it could ease policy further
by boosting market liquidity or by cutting its overnight deposit
rate further into negative territory from the current -0.05
percent.
    "The NBH is widely expected to deliver some easing
measures," Bank of America Merrill Lynch said in a note.
    "We now expect the NBH to also cut the overnight deposit
rate by 10bp to -0.15 percent ... consistently dovish messages
from the NBH and increasing consensus expectations for a rate
cut in the past week suggest that it will be difficult for the
central bank to not deliver."
    At 0811 GMT the forint was down 0.1 percent at
309.50 to the euro, erasing gains achieved earlier this year,
and underperforming the Polish zloty and the Czech crown so far
this year. Hungarian government bond yields have dropped by more
than 10 basis points since the end of August. 
    Around the region, currencies were little changed in slow
trade. 
    BZ WBK analysts said Polish markets would be likely driven
by external factors this week. 
    "The FOMC meeting will be probably the key event, with Fed
likely to present lower expected path of future interest rates,
but at the same time signaling the start of balance sheet
reduction," they said.
    Stock markets across the region rose, with Warsaw leading
gains, rising one percent.
    The Prague stock exchange touched a near 2-1/2-year high
before giving up gains, making it the only stock market in
Central Europe to trade marginally lower on Monday. 
    The bourse was pulled lower by blue-chip CEZ as
investors took profit after the utility stock hit its highest
level since going ex-dividend at the end of June. 
    
               CEE MARKETS  SNAPSH   AT  1011 CET          
                            OT                      
                            CURRENCIES                     
                            Latest  Previo  Daily   Change
                                    us              
                            bid     close   change  in 2017
 Czech crown                26.078  26.092   +0.06    3.56%
                                 0       5       %  
 Hungary                    309.50  309.33  -0.05%   -0.22%
 forint                         00      00          
 Polish zloty               4.2810  4.2787  -0.05%    2.87%
 Romanian leu               4.5998  4.6010   +0.03   -1.41%
                                                 %  
 Croatian                   7.4840  7.4795  -0.06%    0.95%
 kuna                                               
 Serbian                    119.05  119.08   +0.03    3.61%
 dinar                          00      00       %  
 Note: daily   calculated   previo  close   1800           
 change        from         us      at      CET     
                            STOCKS                         
                            Latest  Previo  Daily   Change
                                    us              
                                    close   change  in 2017
 Prague                     1051.0  1051.0   +0.00   +14.04
                                 4       7       %        %
 Budapest                   38429.  38325.   +0.27   +20.08
                                17      93       %        %
 Warsaw                     2522.8  2498.3   +0.98   +29.52
                                 9       2       %        %
 Bucharest                  8055.8  8013.3   +0.53   +13.70
                                 5       2       %        %
 Ljubljana                  800.93  800.80   +0.02   +11.61
                                                 %        %
 Zagreb                     1807.5  1821.4  -0.76%   -9.39%
                                 7       3          
 Belgrade                   729.55  730.05  -0.07%   +1.70%
 Sofia                      669.33  680.83  -1.69%   +14.14
                                                          %
                            BONDS                          
                            Yield   Yield   Spread  Daily
                            (bid)   change  vs      change
                                            Bund    in
 Czech                                              spread
 Republic                                           
   2-year                    0.011  -0.044   +070b    -4bps
                                                ps  
   5-year                    0.185       0   +047b    +1bps
                                                ps  
   10-year                   0.995    0.01   +056b    +1bps
                                                ps  
 Poland                                                    
   2-year                    1.734       0   +242b    +0bps
                                                ps  
   5-year                    2.573  -0.002   +286b    +1bps
                                                ps  
   10-year                    3.22  -0.014   +279b    -1bps
                                                ps  
               FORWARD      RATE    AGREEMENT              
                            3x6     6x9     9x12    3M
                                                    interba
                                                    nk
 Czech Rep             <PR    0.72    0.87    0.97        0
               IBOR=>                               
 Hungary               <BU   0.105   0.115    0.14     0.12
               BOR=>                                
 Poland                <WI   1.756   1.782   1.811     1.73
               BOR=>                                
 Note: FRA     are for ask                                 
 quotes        prices                               
 

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