July 13, 2020 / 9:47 AM / 23 days ago

CEE MARKETS-Markets price in political continuity after Duda wins Polish election

    By Anita Komuves
    BUDAPEST, July 13 (Reuters) - The Polish zloty edged down
along with other currencies in the region and the Warsaw stock
market firmed slightly after incumbent president Andzej Duda was
declared the winner of the presidential election in a very tight
race.
    According to the latest results, Duda received more than 51%
of the votes, while opposition candidate Rafal Trzaskowski got
almost 49%.
    Duda is expected to help the ruling Law and Justice (PiS)
party continue its reforms of the judiciary, which have been
criticised by the European Union, and generous social spending
programmes.
    "We expect no material change in the political environment
and the PiS-led government's ability to implement its political
agenda in full," Morgan Stanley wrote in a note.
    "For the zloty, this outcome is relatively positive as the
market tends to prefer continuity over uncertainty," Commerzbank
analysts added.
    The zloty was down 0.17% on Monday, trading at
4.4725 versus the euro. Warsaw's equities were up 0.21%
by 0837 GMT. 
    "Duda's victory should not have a major impact on the zloty
and local assets over the next 12 months or so," Rabobank said
in a note.
    "However, in the coming years investors may become
increasingly concerned if the Law & Justice with full support of
Duda continues to tighten its grip on power."  
    A key power of the president is the ability to veto
legislation passed by parliament and he can also propose new
legislation and will propose the next Polish central bank
governor to the Sejm in 2022.
    Elsewhere, the Hungarian forint was down 0.1% and
was trading at 353.85 to the euro. The Czech crown
edged down 0.21% to 26.708 versus the common currency. The
Romanian leu was little moved.
    Bucharest's equities were up 0.18% while Prague's
stocks gained 0.44%. 
    Budapest's blue chip index was down 0.81% with oil
company MOL underperforming the wider market and
losing 1.74% by 0856 GMT.  
    
            CEE        SNAPSHOT    AT  1037 CET                 
            MARKETS                                      
                       CURRENCIE                                
                       S                                 
                       Latest     Previous       Daily   Change
                       bid        close          change  in 2020
 Czech                   26.7080        26.6510  -0.21%   -4.78%
 crown                                                   
 Hungary                353.8500       353.5000  -0.10%   -6.42%
 forint                                                  
 Polish                   4.4725         4.4650  -0.17%   -4.83%
 zloty                                                   
 Romanian                 4.8420         4.8415  -0.01%   -1.11%
 leu                                                     
 Croatian                 7.5340         7.5345   +0.01   -1.18%
 kuna                                                 %  
 Serbian                117.5500       117.5800   +0.03   +0.02%
 dinar                                                %  
 Note:      calculated from                      1800           
 daily                                           CET     
 change                                                  
                                                                
                       Latest     Previous       Daily   Change
                                  close          change  in 2020
 Prague                   945.86       941.7300   +0.44  -15.22%
                                                      %  
 Budapest               35301.52       35589.60  -0.81%  -23.40%
 Warsaw                  1801.04        1797.27   +0.21  -16.23%
                                                      %  
 Bucharest               8458.94        8443.65   +0.18  -15.22%
                                                      %  
 Ljubljana                861.24         861.10   +0.02   -6.98%
                                                      %  
 Zagreb                  1609.13        1607.89   +0.08  -20.24%
                                                      %  
 Belgrade   <.BELEX15     655.82         654.19   +0.25  -18.20%
            >                                         %  
 Sofia                    444.57         444.23   +0.08  -21.75%
                                                      %  
                                                                
                       Yield      Yield          Spread  Daily
                       (bid)      change         vs      change
                                                 Bund    in
 Czech                                                   spread
 Republic                                                
   2-year   <CZ2YT=RR     0.0490         0.0790   +074b    +7bps
            >                                        ps  
   5-year   <CZ5YT=RR     0.3110        -0.0670   +098b    -8bps
            >                                        ps  
   10-year  <CZ10YT=R     0.8310         0.0280   +129b    +2bps
            R>                                       ps  
 Poland                                                         
   2-year   <PL2YT=RR     0.1230        -0.0050   +081b    -1bps
            >                                        ps  
   5-year   <PL5YT=RR     0.7340        -0.0220   +140b    -4bps
            >                                        ps  
   10-year  <PL10YT=R     1.3230        -0.0170   +178b    -3bps
            R>                                       ps  
            FORWARD                                             
                       3x6        6x9            9x12    3M
                                                         interba
                                                         nk
 Czech Rep          <       0.31           0.31    0.34     0.34
            PRIBOR=>                                     
 Hungary            <       0.66           0.64    0.64     0.70
            BUBOR=>                                      
 Poland             <       0.21           0.20    0.22     0.26
            WIBOR=>                                      
 Note: FRA  are for ask prices                                  
 quotes                                                  
 
0 : 0
  • narrow-browser-and-phone
  • medium-browser-and-portrait-tablet
  • landscape-tablet
  • medium-wide-browser
  • wide-browser-and-larger
  • medium-browser-and-landscape-tablet
  • medium-wide-browser-and-larger
  • above-phone
  • portrait-tablet-and-above
  • above-portrait-tablet
  • landscape-tablet-and-above
  • landscape-tablet-and-medium-wide-browser
  • portrait-tablet-and-below
  • landscape-tablet-and-below