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CEE MARKETS-Long-term yields fall on less worry over central bank hawks
2017年11月3日 / 上午11点27分 / 15 天前

CEE MARKETS-Long-term yields fall on less worry over central bank hawks

    * Government bonds yields fall, curves get flatter
    * UK, Czech cbanks, Fed seen less hawkish than expected
    * Crown regains some ground, investors continue to eye CNB
    * MOL earnings report knocks down Budapest stock index

    By Sandor Peto
    BUDAPEST, Nov 3 (Reuters) - Central European government bond
yields fell on Friday after the British and Czech central banks
signalled a slower-than-expected pace of policy tightening ahead
and a centrist was nominated as the next head of the U.S.
Federal Reserve.
    The nomination of Jerome Powell was well-flagged but came as
a relief as he supports caution in the Fed's interest rate
hikes.
    Fast rises in U.S. interest rates and a surge in the dollar
would make assets in emerging markets including Central European
economies relatively less attractive. 
    A drop in U.S. 10-year Treasuries yields on Thursday
improved sentiment across bond markets in the European Union's
eastern wing, one Budapest-based trader said.
    "An additional factor in the Hungarian market is that the
central bank has signalled that it may take further steps to
push long-term yields lower," another dealer said.
    Hungary's 10-year bonds traded at a yield of 2.4 percent,
down 6 basis points from Thursday's fixing. Poland's
corresponding yield dropped two basis points to 3.4455 percent.
    The Czech 10-year yield was bid lower by 10 basis points,
even though on Thursday the Czech central bank (CNB) raised its
key interest rate by 25 basis points for the second time in
three months, while the 2-year yield was steady at 0.346
percent.
    The Czech crown rebounded from an early fall, joining most
regional currencies which were firming amid positioning ahead of
U.S. jobs data due later on Friday, which can influence
expectations about Fed rate hikes.
    On Thursday the crown fell half a percent against the euro
from 4-year highs after the CNB's meeting.
    The quarter percentage point rate hike met the expectations
of most analysts, but the size of likely future hikes that
investors read from the bank's comments was disappointing.
    The crown has still firmed by over 5 percent this year, but
the bank will need stronger levels to drive back inflation.
    "With a calming of rate hike speculation we would now expect
a decline of recently witnessed appreciation dynamics for the
koruna," Raiffeisen analyst Wolfgang Ernst said in a note.
    The crown traded at 25.68 against the euro at 1015
GMT, firming in tandem with the forint and the leu
.
    The CNB increased its forecasts for the Czech budget surplus
for this year, and September figures showed a
higher-than-expected surplus.
    In equities markets, a more than 3 percent fall in MOL
shares knocked Budapest's main index down from
Thursday's record highs, after the oil group reported
lower-than-expected third-quarter earnings.
    
               CEE MARKETS  SNAPSH   AT  1115 CET         
                            OT                      
                            CURRENCIES                    
                            Latest  Previo  Daily   Change
                                    us              
                            bid     close   change  in
                                                    2017
 Czech crown                25.680  25.696   +0.06   5.17%
                                 0       5       %  
 Hungary                    311.05  311.48   +0.14  -0.72%
 forint                         00      00       %  
 Polish zloty               4.2415  4.2365  -0.12%   3.83%
 Romanian leu               4.5948  4.5990   +0.09  -1.30%
                                                 %  
 Croatian                   7.5280  7.5285   +0.01   0.36%
 kuna                                            %  
 Serbian                    118.62  118.69   +0.06   3.99%
 dinar                          00      00       %  
 Note: daily   calculated   previo  close   1800          
 change        from         us      at      CET     
                            STOCKS                        
                            Latest  Previo  Daily   Change
                                    us              
                                    close   change  in
                                                    2017
 Prague                     1054.0  1066.2  -1.14%   +14.3
                                 8       0              7%
 Budapest                   39781.  40149.  -0.92%   +24.3
                                32      86              0%
 Warsaw                     2501.4  2501.4   +0.02   +28.4
                                 9       0       %      2%
 Bucharest                  7773.2  7776.3  -0.04%   +9.71
                                 8       9               %
 Ljubljana                  794.80  793.22   +0.20   +10.7
                                                 %      6%
 Zagreb                     1847.1  1865.2  -0.97%  -7.40%
                                 8       4          
 Belgrade                   728.42  727.66   +0.10   +1.54
                                                 %       %
 Sofia                      671.58  670.13   +0.22   +14.5
                                                 %      2%
                            BONDS                         
                            Yield   Yield   Spread  Daily
                            (bid)   change  vs      change
                                            Bund    in
 Czech                                              spread
 Republic                                           
   2-year                    0.346   0.008   +110b   +1bps
                                                ps  
   5-year                    0.726   0.011   +108b   +2bps
                                                ps  
   10-year                   1.557  -0.101   +119b   -9bps
                                                ps  
 Poland                                                   
   2-year                    1.635  -0.007   +239b   +0bps
                                                ps  
   5-year                    2.694   -0.01   +305b   +0bps
                                                ps  
   10-year                   3.451  -0.023   +309b   -2bps
                                                ps  
               FORWARD      RATE    AGREEMENT             
                            3x6     6x9     9x12    3M
                                                    interb
                                                    ank
 Czech Rep             <PR    0.93    1.01    1.17       0
               IBOR=>                               
 Hungary               <BU    0.07     0.1    0.13    0.03
               BOR=>                                
 Poland                <WI    1.78    1.83    1.92    1.73
               BOR=>                                
 Note: FRA     are for ask                                
 quotes        prices                               
 

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