Reuters logo
CEE MARKETS-Zloty extends gain on output surge, shrugs off German worry
November 20, 2017 / 3:35 PM / in 22 days

CEE MARKETS-Zloty extends gain on output surge, shrugs off German worry

    * Zloty bucks fx easing on German coalition talks collapse
    * Zloty extends gains on strong Polish output, retail
figures
    * Forint eases, cbank could loosen screws further on Tues
    * Crown firms, central bank chief sees 50 pct Dec rate hike
odds

 (Adds fresh Polish data, Czech central banker comments,
Romanian tenders)
    By Sandor Peto and Bartosz Chmielewski
    BUDAPEST/WARSAW, Nov 20 (Reuters) - The zloty clung to its
gains on Monday after fresh Polish figures showed a surge in
industrial output and retail sales, reflecting robust economic
growth in Central Europe.
    A collapse of coalition talks in Germany limited the zloty's
gains early on Monday.
    Figures released later showed a 12.3 percent annual rise in
industrial output in October, exceeding all analyst forecasts,
and 8 percent growth in retail sales.
    The zloty firmed 0.1 percent to 4.2329 against the
euro by 1455 GMT, after touching a six-day high at 4.228.
    Polish government bond yields rose 2-3 basis points in
longer maturities. The 2-year yield dropped 2 basis points to
1.4805 percent. 
    "Initially there was some uncertainty around German
coalition talks failure, but at the moment zloty is slightly
gaining," said Millennium Bank analyst Mateusz Sutowicz. 
    The withdrawal of small centre-right party FDP from
Germany's coalition talks caused some unease among investors in
the European Union's emerging economies.
    EU political noise is still a force to be reckoned with,
said Simon Quijano-Evans, strategist of Legal & General
Investment Management in a note.
    "CEE members of the EU have the most to lose from any
increase in 'core-EU' nationalism coupled with Brexit
implications for the 2021-27 EU budget," he said, referring to a
loss of Britain's contributions after it quits the EU.
    The forint eased 0.2 percent against the euro to
312.39.
    Hungary's central bank, one of the most dovish monetary
authorities in the world, may launch new measures at its meeting
on Tuesday to push long-term market interest rates lower.
    That could send the forint towards 315 versus the euro,
Raiffeisen analyst Wolfgang Ernst said in a note, adding though
that the forint could rebound to 310 by the end of the year.
    The Romanian government managed to sell debt for the first
time since Nov. 9 at an auction, after pumping 5.83 billion lei
into interbank markets via a repo tender. 
    It rejected all bids at most tenders held since early
October as yields surged and demand was scarce due to a
liquidity squeeze in leu markets and concerns over fiscal policy
which is boosting the budget deficit and inflation.
    The leu eased 0.1 percent.
    The crown stood firmer by 0.1 percent at 25.558
versus the euro, after Czech central bank governor Jiri Rusnok
said he saw a 50 percent chance the bank will raise interest
rates again in December after hikes in August and November.

    Warsaw's stock index firmed 0.9 percent, driven by
a 3.2 percent rise by the stocks of shoes retailer CCC
. 
    
               CEE MARKETS  SNAPSH   AT  1555 CET         
                            OT                      
                            CURRENCIES                    
                            Latest  Previo  Daily   Change
                                    us              
                            bid     close   change  in
                                                    2017
 Czech crown                25.558  25.594   +0.14   5.67%
                                 0       5       %  
 Hungary                    312.39  311.84  -0.17%  -1.14%
 forint                         00      50          
 Polish zloty               4.2329  4.2374   +0.11   4.04%
                                                 %  
 Romanian leu               4.6460  4.6417  -0.09%  -2.39%
 Croatian                   7.5635  7.5675   +0.05  -0.11%
 kuna                                            %  
 Serbian                    118.51  118.42  -0.08%   4.08%
 dinar                          00      00          
 Note: daily   calculated   previo  close   1800          
 change        from         us      at      CET     
                            STOCKS                        
                            Latest  Previo  Daily   Change
                                    us              
                                    close   change  in
                                                    2017
 Prague                     1053.4  1054.7  -0.12%   +14.3
                                 6       5              1%
 Budapest                   39258.  39279.  -0.05%   +22.6
                                93      75              7%
 Warsaw                     2465.2  2443.8   +0.87   +26.5
                                 1       3       %      6%
 Bucharest                  7823.6  7772.1   +0.66   +10.4
                                 8       4       %      3%
 Ljubljana                  787.75  792.06  -0.54%   +9.78
                                                         %
 Zagreb                     1847.0  1853.0  -0.33%  -7.41%
                                 5       8          
 Belgrade                   733.93  735.73  -0.24%   +2.31
                                                         %
 Sofia                      669.14  668.87   +0.04   +14.1
                                                 %      0%
                            BONDS                         
                            Yield   Yield   Spread  Daily
                            (bid)   change  vs      change
                                            Bund    in
 Czech                                              spread
 Republic                                           
   2-year                    0.414   0.049   +113b   +6bps
                                                ps  
   5-year                    0.975   0.033   +132b   +3bps
                                                ps  
   10-year                   1.806   0.076   +145b   +8bps
                                                ps  
 Poland                                                   
   2-year                    1.597   0.001   +231b   +1bps
                                                ps  
   5-year                    2.647   0.023   +300b   +2bps
                                                ps  
   10-year                   3.442   0.036   +308b   +4bps
                                                ps  
               FORWARD      RATE    AGREEMENT             
                            3x6     6x9     9x12    3M
                                                    interb
                                                    ank
 Czech Rep             <PR    1.06    1.21    1.34       0
               IBOR=>                               
 Hungary               <BU    0.08    0.09    0.14    0.03
               BOR=>                                
 Poland                <WI    1.77    1.83    1.93    1.73
               BOR=>                                
 Note: FRA     are for ask                                
 quotes        prices                               
 

0 : 0
  • narrow-browser-and-phone
  • medium-browser-and-portrait-tablet
  • landscape-tablet
  • medium-wide-browser
  • wide-browser-and-larger
  • medium-browser-and-landscape-tablet
  • medium-wide-browser-and-larger
  • above-phone
  • portrait-tablet-and-above
  • above-portrait-tablet
  • landscape-tablet-and-above
  • landscape-tablet-and-medium-wide-browser
  • portrait-tablet-and-below
  • landscape-tablet-and-below