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CEE MARKETS-Fx ease as USD wobbles overshadow robust PMIs, oil stocks fall
December 1, 2017 / 3:10 PM / 14 days ago

CEE MARKETS-Fx ease as USD wobbles overshadow robust PMIs, oil stocks fall

    * Czech, Hungarian, Polish PMIs pick up from already strong
levels
    * Currencies ease on dollar jitters, Fed and ECB uncertainty
    * Polish central bankers eyed after GDP, CPI, PMI data
-dealer
    * PKN, Lotos leads regional oil stocks fall to multi-month
lows

 (Adds fall of oil stocks, Czech central bank comments)
    By Sandor Peto
    BUDAPEST, Dec 1 (Reuters) - Central European currencies
eased on Friday as the dollar's wobbles fuelled uncertainty,
overshadowing a batch of powerful manufacturing indices released
in the region.
    The forint weakened by 0.2 percent against the
euro by 1430 GMT, the zloty 0.3 percent and the Czech
crown 0.1 percent.
    Thursday and Friday's economic data should have strengthened
the units according to the textbook, underpinning that growth is
vigorous in the region, fuelled by rising wages.
    Poland reported a surprise jump in annual inflation to a
5-year-high of 2.5 percent.
    Robust activity was underpinned by November Purchasing
Managers' Index figures from Budapest, Prague and Warsaw.
    One Budapest-based dealer said the feeling of uncertainty
dominated, after "end-of-month dollar flows sloshed hither and
thither".
    "There has been a sell-off in equities markets, the Fed and
the ECB will meet within the next two weeks, U.S. lawmakers
hesitate over the tax laws, and in politics there is North
Korea," the dealer added.
    Regional stock markets were mixed, but oil stocks continued
to plunge across the region, with Polish PKN Orlen and
Lotos hitting 3-month lows, Hungarian MOL an
eight-week low and Czech Unipetrol a 5-week low.
    PKN shed almost 10 percent this week amid worries that its
results may worsen next year, with rising oil prices squeezing
refining margins.   
    The forint tested last-week's 7-month lows. Hungarian
long-term government bond yields were fixed lower by 8 basis
points, with the 10-year year yield dropping to 2.05 percent.
    These movements were caused by market talk that National
Bank of Hungary (NBH) Deputy Governor Marton Nagy will inform
investors in London about the bank's interest rate swap and
mortgage note buying programmes on Friday, two dealers said.
    An NBH spokesman confirmed to Reuters that Nagy was meeting
investors in London.
    The announcement of the schemes pushed medium-and long-term
Hungarian yields to record lows by last week, while government
data show that foreigners have withdrawn almost
200 billion forints ($757.26 million) from Hungarian bonds since
Sept 21.         
    That was in line with an outflow from other regional bond
markets.
    Foreigners also scaled back their crown assets after a
buying frenzy before the Czech central bank (CNB) removed a cap
on the currency in April, letting the currency strengthen.
    The CNB, which has raised interest rates twice since August,
said on Friday that the breakdown of third-quarter growth,
confirmed at a robust 5 percent annual rate on Friday, was in
line with its forecasts. 
    Romanian domestic markets were closed due to a national
holiday.
               CEE MARKETS  SNAPSH   AT  1530 CET         
                            OT                      
                            CURRENCIES                    
                            Latest  Previo  Daily   Change
                                    us              
                            bid     close   change  in
                                                    2017
 Czech crown                25.532  25.503  -0.11%   5.78%
                                 0       5          
 Hungary                    313.40  312.90  -0.16%  -1.46%
 forint                         00      00          
 Polish zloty               4.2118  4.2005  -0.27%   4.56%
 Romanian leu               4.6310  4.6442   +0.29  -2.07%
                                                 %  
 Croatian                   7.5550  7.5555   +0.01   0.00%
 kuna                                            %  
 Serbian                    119.20  119.29   +0.08   3.48%
 dinar                          00      00       %  
 Note: daily   calculated   previo  close   1800          
 change        from         us      at      CET     
                            STOCKS                        
                            Latest  Previo  Daily   Change
                                    us              
                                    close   change  in
                                                    2017
 Prague                     1063.1  1059.2   +0.37   +15.3
                                 7       7       %      6%
 Budapest                   38363.  38673.  -0.80%   +19.8
                                97      73              8%
 Warsaw                     2384.9  2408.6  -0.99%   +22.4
                                 6       9              4%
 Ljubljana                  784.90  781.66   +0.41   +9.38
                                                 %       %
 Zagreb                     1860.3  1875.0  -0.78%  -6.74%
                                 8       1          
 Belgrade                   744.59  743.93   +0.09   +3.79
                                                 %       %
 Sofia                      666.11  665.03   +0.16   +13.5
                                                 %      9%
                            BONDS                         
                            Yield   Yield   Spread  Daily
                            (bid)   change  vs      change
                                            Bund    in
 Czech                                              spread
 Republic                                           
   2-year                    0.165   0.096   +086b   +10bp
                                                ps       s
   5-year                    0.807  -0.118   +113b  -10bps
                                                ps  
   10-year                   1.512  -0.066   +117b   -4bps
                                                ps  
 Poland                                                   
   2-year                    1.651   0.042   +234b   +5bps
                                                ps  
   5-year                    2.699   0.014   +302b   +3bps
                                                ps  
   10-year                   3.327  -0.017   +298b   +1bps
                                                ps  
               FORWARD      RATE    AGREEMENT             
                            3x6     6x9     9x12    3M
                                                    interb
                                                    ank
 Czech Rep             <PR    0.99    1.18     1.3       0
               IBOR=>                               
 Hungary               <BU   0.065     0.1    0.13    0.03
               BOR=>                                
 Poland                <WI   1.775   1.842   1.943    1.73
               BOR=>                                
 Note: FRA     are for ask                                
 quotes        prices                               
 

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