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EMERGING MARKETS-Stocks limp to third month of gains, Brazil impeachment looms
2016年8月31日 / 上午11点17分 / 1 年前

EMERGING MARKETS-Stocks limp to third month of gains, Brazil impeachment looms

* MSCI EM index dips at the end of 3rd month of gains
    * Revived Fed rate hike talk sees rally waver
    * Currencies steady after falls on Tuesday
    * Zloty, Rand look to halt falls
    * Red hot Brazilian assets eye president's impeachment

    By Marc Jones
    LONDON, Aug 31 (Reuters) - Emerging market shares and currencies were
showing signs of U.S. rate hike nerves on Wednesday, though Brazilian assets
held firm - stocks are near their highest in two years - as the country prepared
to impeach President Dilma Rousseff.
    MSCI's main EM stocks index was set for its third straight month
of gains, up roughly 2.5 percent and 30 percent since January, though it was
with more of a limp than a swagger due to a 0.1 percent dip on the day.
    Pressure was being applied via revived U.S. rate expectations and a firmer
dollar which makes the trillions of dollars of EM government and company debt
more costly to service.
    Uncertainty was also hanging over various countries; notably Brazil where 
Rousseff was set to be impeached, South Africa where a political power battle
was ongoing and Poland as weak data compounded worries about its EU relations.
    The latter pushed Polish stocks and bonds lower and
left the zloty stuck near a four-week low against the euro, though it
was on course to snap an eight-day run of falls against the dollar.
    "Yesterday's data were pretty weak, especially investment which contracted
about 4 percent which means that interest rate cut is now not out of the
question," said Erste Bank economist Juraj Kotian.
    "The new MPC (central bank) members were surprisingly hawkish when they came
in, but now it seems that they are starting to realise inflation is in negative
territory and the growth is not as strong as they had thought."
    South Africa's rand, which has been the other key mover this month
amid pressure on its Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan, was a touch firmer against
the dollar as it looked to end a nine-day losing streak.
    Political corruption worries rumbled on however, as power firm Eskom
defended doing business with a company linked to the wealthy Gupta family that
is accused of holding undue political sway over President Jacob Zuma.
    In Brazil the Senate was expected to dismiss Rousseff, finalising a
nine-month impeachment process and confirming the country's shift to the right
with the end of 13 years of leftist Workers Party rule. 
    Brazilian stocks have surged almost 60 percent since January and its
currency, the real, which has also been one of the world's best
performers with a 27 percent jump, inched up to 3.2356 per dollar in pre-Latin
American trading.
    The country is also due to publish GDP figures later expected to show the
economy shrank another 0.5 percent quarter-on-quarter and 3.7 percent
year-on-year in the second quarter. 
    "So far we have seen few signs that the economy in Brazil has bottomed out,"
said Standard Life investments' Emerging market economist Alex Wolf. 
    "So even though the market has been extremely early on moving on Brazil that
is one where our fundamental view has not really changed," Wolf said, adding
Rousseff's successor would also have little time to make meaningful reforms
before elections in two years.
    Most Asian currencies had been steady to firmer in trading, with the South
Korean won outperforming due to month-end flows from local exporters.
    The Chinese yuan  held firm too, with investors still wary about
possible central bank intervention whenever the currency nears the
psychologically important 6.7 per dollar level. 

    For GRAPHIC on emerging market FX performance 2016, see
    For GRAPHIC on MSCI emerging index performance 2016, see
    For GRAPHIC on MSCI emerging Europe performance 2016, see
    For GRAPHIC on MSCI frontier index performance 2016, see
    For CENTRAL EUROPE market report, see 
    For TURKISH market report, see 
    For RUSSIAN market report, see )
 Emerging Markets Prices from Reuters            
 Equities                  Latest    Net Chg  % Chg  % Chg            
                                                     on year            
 Morgan Stanley               
 Emrg Mkt Indx    896.94    -1.98   -0.22  +12.94             
 Czech Rep            863.04    +4.21   +0.49   -9.76             
 Poland           1791.82    -6.41   -0.36   -3.62             
 Hungary           28119.27   +69.19   +0.25  +17.55             
 Romania           7026.20    +4.30   +0.06   +0.31             
 Greece              576.23   +11.86   +2.10   -8.73             
 Russia             957.75    -0.92   -0.10  +26.51             
 South Africa    46454.83  -364.32   -0.78   +1.44             
 Turkey          76341.67  +222.83   +0.29   +6.43             
 China             3085.48   +10.81   +0.35  -12.82             
 India           28452.17  +109.16   +0.39   +8.94             
 Currencies              Latest    Prev    Local    Local              
                                   close   currency currency            
                                           % change % change            
                                                    in 2016            
 Czech Rep      27.00     27.02   +0.07    -0.02            
 Poland          4.36      4.36   -0.01    -2.27            
 Hungary       310.23    309.35   -0.28    +1.42            
 Romania         4.45      4.45   -0.01    +1.45            
 Serbia        122.90    123.15   +0.20    -1.16            
 Russia            65.22     65.35   +0.21   +11.85            
 Kazakhstan       340.16    338.24   -0.56    +0.10            
 Ukraine           26.15     25.70   -1.72    -8.41            
 South Africa      14.46     14.48   +0.11    +6.90            
 Kenya            101.25    101.20   -0.05    +0.94            
 Israel             3.78      3.79   +0.23    +2.78            
 Turkey             2.96      2.96   +0.19    -1.34            
 China              6.68      6.68   +0.00    -2.78            
 India             66.96     67.13   +0.26    -1.14            
 Brazil             3.24      3.24   +0.14   +22.33            
 Mexico            18.79     18.79   +0.03    -8.62            
 Debt                 Index   Strip Spd  Chg   %Rtn   Index             
 Sov'gn Debt  EMBIG   356        -2    .01  7 70.30 1            
 All data taken from Reuters at 10:46 GMT.            
 Currency percent change calculated from the daily U.S.            
 close at 2130 GMT.            

 (Reporting by Marc Jones; editing by Susan Thomas)

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