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EMERGING MARKETS-Dollar surge sends emerging currencies reeling
2017年10月2日 / 上午9点55分 / 21 天前

EMERGING MARKETS-Dollar surge sends emerging currencies reeling

    By Alexander Winning
    LONDON, Oct 2 (Reuters) - Emerging market currencies slipped
on Monday, extending losses from last week as a strong dollar
and rising U.S. Treasury yields outweighed upbeat factory data
from China.
    Emerging markets are one of the top-performing asset classes
of 2017, with double-digit gains in some sectors, but they have
fallen back in recent weeks as the dollar has risen on
expectations of a U.S. rate rise by the end of the year and the
possible appointment of a more hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve
chief.
    South Africa's rand       , Russia's rouble        and
Turkey's lira        all fell around 0.5 percent against the
dollar as the dollar index        rose further after enjoying
its best week of 2017 last week, and yields on 10-year U.S.
Treasuries             hit their highest since July.       
    Emerging currencies hit five-week lows last week on
JPMorgan's ELMI Plus index, losing more than 1 percent.
    "You're seeing some repricing on the U.S. side on a
combination of the possibility of tax reform in the U.S. being
approved and maybe a more hawkish Fed governor," said Jakob
Christensen, an emerging markets analyst at Danske Bank.
    "That is playing into a stronger dollar, and goes hand in
hand with higher U.S. rates, which is typically tricky for
emerging markets," he said.
    Investors were cheered by data showing manufacturing
activity in China grew at the fastest pace since 2012 in
September since that data paints a rosy picture for demand for
emerging market exports.             
    But with markets in China, South Korea and India closed for
public holidays, MSCI's benchmark emerging equity index
          was little changed, and trading some 3 percent below
three-year highs struck in September. 
    There were gains, however, on emerging European equities,
with Warsaw and Budapest rising 0.7 and 0.9 percent respectively
               , after robust purchasing manager (PMI) surveys.
    "On the equity side we have seen a significant rally and
maybe the prices are beginning to be a bit stretched, but the
strong PMIs suggest the global economy is doing quite well and
supporting the trade-oriented emerging markets," Danske Bank's
Christensen said.
    On bond markets, Abu Dhabi was the latest country to test
markets with plans for a triple-tranche U.S. dollar-denominated
bond issue             .
    Demand remains strong for emerging market paper, with the
spread of sovereign debt over U.S. Treasuries near its lowest
since August 2014        . Average yields on emerging currency
debt nudged back below 6 percent after rising last week
          .
 
    JPMorgan analysts said that while headwinds for emerging
debt had increased, they remained overweight.
    "Given the repricing that has already been seen in market
expectations for U.S. rates and emerging currency valuations
that are attractive, we are inclined to think the worst of this
move is behind us," they told clients.
    
    
    
        
For GRAPHIC on emerging market FX performance 2017, see tmsnrt.rs/2e7eoml

For GRAPHIC on MSCI emerging index performance 2017, see tmsnrt.rs/2dZbdP5
    
    For CENTRAL EUROPE market report, see       
    For TURKISH market report, see      
    For RUSSIAN market report, see         )
 Emerging Markets Prices from Reuters                
 Equities                  Latest    Net Chg  % Chg  % Chg      
         
                                                     on year    
           
 Morgan Stanley                   
 Emrg Mkt Indx             1082.34    +0.62   +0.06  +25.52     
           
 Czech Rep                 1049.86    +4.69   +0.45  +13.92     
           
 Poland                    2474.34   +20.88   +0.85  +27.02     
           
 Hungary                  37652.53  +361.88   +0.97  +17.65     
           
 Romania                   7898.57   +20.65   +0.26  +11.48     
           
 Greece                     742.15   -13.46   -1.78  +15.31     
           
 Russia                    1133.85    -2.90   -0.26   -1.60     
           
 South Africa             49661.97  +285.51   +0.58  +13.12     
           
 Turkey                   03528.51  +620.77   +0.60  +32.49     
           
 China                     3349.22    +9.57   +0.29   +7.91     
           
 India                    31283.72    +1.24   +0.00  +17.49     
           
                
 Currencies              Latest    Prev    Local    Local       
          
                                   close   currency currency    
           
                                           % change % change    
           
                                                    in 2017     
          
 Czech Rep                25.96     25.97   +0.05    +4.04      
         
 Poland                    4.31      4.31   -0.05    +2.09      
         
 Hungary                 311.09    311.54   +0.14    -0.73      
         
 Romania                   4.59      4.59   +0.09    -1.14      
         
 Serbia                  119.05    119.10   +0.04    +3.61      
         
 Russia                   57.84     57.51   -0.58    +5.92      
         
 Kazakhstan              341.05    340.28   -0.23    -2.17      
         
 Ukraine                  26.66     26.60   -0.21    +1.29      
         
 South Africa             13.62     13.55   -0.52    +0.84      
         
 Kenya                   103.10    103.10   -0.00    -0.71      
         
 Israel                    3.54      3.53   -0.17    +8.81      
         
 Turkey                    3.58      3.56   -0.40    -1.41      
         
 China                     6.65      6.65   -0.00    +4.35      
         
 India                    65.31     65.31   +0.00    +4.04      
         
 Brazil                    3.16      3.16   -0.08    +2.83      
         
 Mexico                   18.27     18.25   -0.11   +13.39      
         
                
 Debt                 Index   Strip Spd  Chg   %Rtn   Index     
           
 Sov'gn Debt          EMBIG   304        -2    .02  8 03.45 1   
            
                
 All data taken from Reuters at 09:19 GMT.                
 Currency percent change calculated from the daily U.S.         
      
 close at 2130 GMT.                
                

    
 (Reporting by Alexander Winning and Claire Milhench, editing by
Louise Heavens)
  

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