October 25, 2017 / 2:21 PM / a year ago

UPDATE 1-Guggenheim's Minerd says U.S. bull market in bonds 'soundly in place'

(Adds quotes from Minerd)

By Jennifer Ablan

NEW YORK, Oct 25 (Reuters) - The U.S. bull market in bonds is "still soundly in place" despite the 10-year yield's recent rise above 2.4 percent this week, Scott Minerd, global chief investment officer at Guggenheim Partners, said Wednesday.

The 10-year Treasury yield closed above 2.4 percent for the first time in five months "from a combination of seasonal pressures which are driving rates higher and the rest increasing confidence that a tax deal is imminent," Minerd said.

"There is still lots of uncertainty around the tax deal both in its substance and the likelihood it will pass this year."

Minerd, who oversees more than $243 billion, said while upcoming economic data is likely to support growth and add upward pressure on yields, the fact remains that the 35-year-old bull market in bonds is still intact.

"The 10-year Treasury yield would have to trade above 3 percent in yield to violate the long-term trend," he said.

With Stanford University economist John Taylor under consideration by U.S. President Donald Trump to run the Federal Reserve, investors are bracing for higher yields as Taylor has repeatedly criticized the central bank by saying it held interest rates too low before and after the 2008 financial crisis.

"I think concerns about Taylor are a little overblown," Minerd said. "He'd make a great chairman. He is a brilliant economist who has spent a lifetime in preparation. Hard to imagine a better candidate."

Minerd, who personally knows Taylor, said: "While he developed the Taylor Rule, which would suggest much higher rates, he is also a practical man who understands that the application of rules depends on specific circumstances.

"I believe he would be both disciplined and pragmatic in his policy approach. He clearly understands that the current environment presents a relatively unprecedented set of circumstances for monetary policy which will require rigorous and disciplined policy actions." (Reporting By Jennifer Ablan; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Bill Trott)

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