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TEXT-Fitch affirms Comision Federal de Electricidad ratings
2012年5月11日 / 晚上7点03分 / 6 年前

TEXT-Fitch affirms Comision Federal de Electricidad ratings

May 11 - Fitch Ratings has affirmed Comision Federal de Electricidad's (CFE)
ratings as follows:	
	
--Foreign Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BBB'; 	
--Local Currency IDR at 'BBB+'; 	
--USD 1 billion senior notes due 2021 at 'BBB'; 	
--USD 750 million senior notes due 2042 at 'BBB'; 	
--National scale long-term rating at 'AAA(mex)'; 	
--Local Certificados Bursatiles Issuances at 'AAA(mex)'; 	
--National scale short-term rating at 'F1+(mex)'; 	
--Senior unsecured short-term peso program at 'F1+(mex)'. 	
	
The Rating Outlook is Stable. 	
	
CFE's ratings reflect the company's position as the largest electricity 	
generator in Mexico. Also reflected are CFE's strong linkage with and strategic 	
importance to the Mexican government and the government's implicit support. 	
CFE's foreign and local currency IDR ratings are at the same level as Mexico's 	
sovereign rating. CFE is a decentralized public entity of the Mexican federal 	
government. The company also has exclusive rights for the transmission and 	
distribution of electricity, which makes it strategically important for the 	
country. CFE's ratings also incorporate the risk of political interference.	
	
 	
	
Strong linkage between government and CFE: 	
	
The relationship between CFE and the government is strong and extends beyond its	
ownership. CFE's budget is incorporated into the country's federal budget and 	
requires the approval of the Mexican Congress. The Minister of Energy acts as 	
chairman of the company's board. In addition, the company's rates and 	
operational costs are set annually by the Mexican government based on 	
anticipated electricity generation capabilities and long-term marginal costs, as	
well as other variables. While CFE's monopoly position decreases competitive 	
risks and other risks related to business operations, the company's financial 	
performance is highly correlated with that of the Mexican federal government, 	
which does not provide an explicit debt guarantee. 	
	
CFE generates approximately 90% of the electricity generated in Mexico and owns 	
a 100% of transmission and distribution infrastructure. The company's right to 	
be the exclusive transmitter and distributor in Mexico was established by the 	
Mexican constitution and Electric Energy Public Service law. As a result, CFE's 	
budget is incorporated into Mexico's federal government budget, which requires 	
the approval of the Mexican Congress. 	
	
The setting of rates by the government exposes the company to regulatory risk 	
and political interference. However, CFE's tariff structure includes monthly 	
fuel cost adjustment for approximately 76% of revenues and subsidies to 	
agricultural and residential sectors. CFE is partially exposed to fuel prices, 	
fluctuations in production costs, and unfavorable tariffs, which at times could 	
be set below operating costs for a specific class of customer. 	
	
Higher electricity demand requires 27TW of additional capacity by 2025: 	
	
According to CFE's electricity 2011-2025 investment program (POISE), the company	
expects annual GDP's annual growth to average 3.5% during the next 15 years. 	
This is expected to translate into an electricity demand growth of 3.6% per year	
during this period. If this growth materializes, it would mean that electricity 	
consumption would increase to approximately 404.7 TWh by 2025, from 238.8 TWh in	
2010 driven by an average 5.1% of the industrial sector. The Mexican electricity	
industry will require capacity additions of approximately 27 TW, during the next	
15 years, to cover the national energy power consumption. Such investment is 	
expected to be financed by the company's cash generation and the 'Proyectos de 	
Impacto Diferido en el Registro del Gasto' (PIDIREGAS) program, which includes: 	
independent power producers (IPPs) and Public Finance Works Program (OPF). 	
	
As of March 31, 2012 total on balance sheet debt was MXN $259 billion which 	
increases to MXN $699.4 billion when including unfunded pensions liabilities. 	
Total debt is composed of MXN $56.5 billion of local currency debt, MXN $55.1 	
billion of foreign currency debt, MXN $78.7 as Pidiregas debt and MXN $68.7 	
billion in PEE leases. Debt maturity profile is manageable with MXN $48.9 	
billion maturing within the next two years of which MXN $24.2 billion are 	
short-term, compared to MXN $53.3 billion in cash and marketable securities. 	
	
For the 12 months ending March 31 2012, CFE has revenues of MXN $302.8 billion 	
and EBITDAP (EBITDA + Pension Expenses) of MXN $42.7 billion, MXN $8.5 billion 	
higher than its 2011 results. During the first three months of 2012, CFE's 	
revenues reflected a 17% increase compared to March 2011. Of total customers, 	
approximately 88% are residential and of total revenues 59% are Industrial 	
customers and 24% Residential. CFE has 52,758 MW of installed capacity of which 	
68.5% is thermo, 21.9% hydro and 9.6% of others technologies.

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