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MORNING BID-PBOC strikes back. Yuan shrugs

A look at the day ahead from Sujata Rao.

China’s central bank, the PBOC, struck a blow against the yuan’s run to three-year highs by hiking banks’ reserve ratios for the first time since 2007. The move, seen withdrawing just $20 billion worth of liquidity from the system, didn’t have much impact but might keep traders wary of pushing the currency higher for now.

Also on the central banking front, the Reserve Bank of Australia reiterated its mantra of no rate hikes until at least 2024 but more interestingly, tweaked its language, appearing to signal reduced asset purchases once the current QE programme ends.

The Aussie dollar rose as much as 0.5% at one stage, yet the main tailwind for non-U.S. currencies is the dollar index which is near recent 4-1/2 month lows.

Conviction the Fed will look through the current string of robust data has checked the greenback and Treasury yields, boosting rivals. Sterling in contrast is at three-year highs following a hawkish policymaker message last week.

Now for inflation. German May price growth at an annual 2.5%, a decade high could be followed by a 2%-plus print for the euro zone though ECB policymakers, like their Fed counterparts, are keen to stress the upsurge stems from one-off factors, notably energy.

Yet, there are signs of sticky supply-side issues. South Korean exports, a sort of global trade bellwether, rose 45.6% year-on-year in May, a 33-year high, but soaring input costs were notable.

Standard Chartered reckons markets underestimate Chinese factory inflation; it almost doubled 2021 forecasts to 6.8%.

We might get a hint on how oil prices might behave as an OPEC+ meeting kicks off. The group decided in April to add 2.1 million barrels per day of supply from May to July and is expected to stay the course. Brent crude meanwhile topped $70 a barrel.

Key developments that should provide more direction to markets on Tuesday:

-Chinese factory activity expanded at its fastest this year in May

-Private-equity firms KKR & Co and Clayton Dubilier & Rice LLC (CD&R) are near deal to take Cloudera Inc private at valuation of $4.7 billion

-German retail sales/jobless

-Final PMIs

-Euro zone flash HICP

-UK Nationwide house sales

-Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks at 1500 GMT

-Auctions: UK 10 and 25-yr gilts; Germany 5-yr notes

-OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial meeting

-U.S. earnings: Hewlett packard

Reporting by Sujata Rao

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