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UPDATE 2-U.S. natgas futures drop 7% with fall in crude prices, rising output

 (Adds latest prices)
    Sept 8 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell over 7% on Tuesday along with a similar drop in
crude prices with an increase in gas output and forecasts for cooler weather and lower demand in late
September.
    That gas price decline came despite a daily increase in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports
following hurricane shutdowns in late August and record sales to Mexico.
    Front-month gas futures fell 18.8 cents, or 7.3%, to settle at a two-week low of $2.400 per
million British thermal units. That was the contract's biggest one-day decline since early May, leaving
the front-month down 13% from an eight-month high of $2.743 on Aug. 28.
    Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states was on track to rise to 88.0
billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in September, up from a three-month low of 87.6 bcfd in August. That
is well below November's all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd.
    With exports rising and temperatures expected to remain warmer-than-normal through mid September,
Refinitiv projected U.S. demand, including exports, would rise from an average of 84.0 bcfd this week
to 85.0 bcfd next week. That is higher than Refinitiv's forecasts on Friday before the long U.S. Labor
Day weekend.
    In late September, however, demand is expected to decline as air conditioning use drops as the
weather cools.
    The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export terminals was on track to rise over 1.0 bcfd to 5.0
bcfd on Tuesday, the biggest one-day gain since March, as Cheniere Energy Inc's Sabine Pass
plant in Louisiana continues to ramp up after shutting for Hurricane Laura.
    Pipeline exports to Mexico were on track to rise to 6.2 bcfd in September, topping August's
5.9-bcfd record high.
        
                                       Week ended     Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                          Sep 4         Aug 28       Sep 4      average    
                                       (Forecast)      (Actual)                  Sep 4     
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +60           +35          +80         +68 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                        
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day    Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                  Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                             26             23           10          24           31
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             124           137          164         130          114
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             150           160          174         154          145
                                                                                           
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                     
                                       Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                               Last Year   Average For
                                                                                              Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production             87.0           88.4         88.3        93.2         79.7
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  6.3           5.7          6.7         7.8          7.9
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0           0.0          0.0         0.0          0.1
 Total U.S. Supply                        93.3           94.1         95.0       101.0         87.7
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    2.0           2.1          2.1         2.4          2.3
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    6.2           6.1          6.0         5.4          4.5
 U.S. LNG Exports                          2.9           4.3          5.7         5.9          2.1
 U.S. Commercial                           4.6           4.7          4.8         4.7          4.7
 U.S. Residential                          3.7           3.8          3.9         3.8          3.7
 U.S. Power Plant                         38.1           35.1         34.7        37.5         32.0
 U.S. Industrial                          21.5           21.6         21.4        21.2         20.6
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.3           4.4          4.4         4.4          4.4
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    2.0           1.9          1.9         1.9          1.9
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1           0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                   74.3           71.6         71.2        73.6         67.4
 Total U.S. Demand                        85.4           84.0         85.0        87.3         76.3 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                        
 Hub                                   Current Day    Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                  1.80           2.32                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL       1.38           1.58                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL            3.67           3.62                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL          1.34           1.45                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL          1.96           2.19                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL        1.75           1.58                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL          7.97           5.01                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                1.69           2.08 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                      
 Hub                                   Current Day    Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             20.50         22.75                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                21.25         25.50                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             25.25         25.75                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                   37.40         105.00                             
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL             120.00         97.00                              
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                  102.00         78.00                              
 
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino
Editing by Marguerita Choy)
  
 
 
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