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UPDATE 2-U.S. natgas futures fall to fresh 4-week low on cooler forecasts

 (Adds latest prices)
    Sept 11 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell more than 2% to a fresh four-week low on Friday
on forecasts for cooler weather and lower air-conditioning demand over the next two weeks than
previously expected.
    That price decline came despite a continued increase in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and
record sales to Mexico.
    Front-month gas futures fell 5.4 cents, or 2.3%, to settle at $2.269 per million British
thermal units, their lowest close since Aug. 13 for a second day in a row.
    For the week, the front-month dropped about 12% in its biggest weekly decline since March.
    Data provider Refinitiv projected demand in the Lower 48 U.S. states would rise from an average of
84.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to 84.9 bcfd next week as exports increase, before
slipping to 83.6 bcfd in two weeks due to a seasonal cooling of the weather. Those forecasts are lower
than Refinitiv's projections on Thursday.
    The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants was on track to average 4.5 bcfd in September.
That is the most in a month since May and is up for a second month in a row for the first time since
hitting a record high of 8.7 bcfd in February.
    That LNG-export gain comes as Cheniere Energy Inc's Sabine Pass in Louisiana keeps ramping
up after shutting in late August for Hurricane Laura and as global gas prices rise, making U.S. gas
more attractive in Europe and Asia following months of U.S. cargo cancellations
due to coronavirus demand destruction. 
    Cameron LNG's export plant in Louisiana, however, has remained shut since Aug. 27 when Laura struck
the southwestern Louisiana coast.
    U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico, meanwhile, were on track to rise to 6.1 bcfd in September, which
would top August's record 5.9 bcfd.
                
                                       Week ended     Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                         Sep 11         Sep 4        Sep 11     average    
                                       (Forecast)      (Actual)                  Sep 11    
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +70           +70          +82         +77 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                        
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day    Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                  Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                             33             33           10          24           37
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             101           112          164         130          104
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             134           145          174         154          141
                                                                                           
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                     
                                       Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                               Last Year   Average For
                                                                                              Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production             87.0           88.4         88.0        93.2         79.7
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  6.3           5.8          6.5         7.8          7.9
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0           0.0          0.0         0.0          0.1
 Total U.S. Supply                        93.3           94.2         94.5       101.0         87.7
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    2.0           2.1          2.2         2.4          2.3
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    6.2           6.0          6.0         5.4          4.5
 U.S. LNG Exports                          2.9           4.8          6.5         5.9          2.1
 U.S. Commercial                           4.6           4.8          4.9         4.7          4.7
 U.S. Residential                          3.7           4.0          4.1         3.8          3.7
 U.S. Power Plant                         38.1           34.3         33.4        37.5         32.0
 U.S. Industrial                          21.5           21.6         21.4        21.2         20.6
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.3           4.4          4.3         4.4          4.4
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    2.0           1.9          1.9         1.9          1.9
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1           0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                   74.3           71.1         70.1        73.6         67.4
 Total U.S. Demand                        85.4           84.0         84.9        87.3         76.3 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                        
 Hub                                   Current Day    Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                  2.13           2.21                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL       1.43           1.64                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL            3.46           3.54                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL          1.38           1.51                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL          1.88           1.95                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL        2.20           2.55                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL          2.26           3.12                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                1.50           1.20 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                      
 Hub                                   Current Day    Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             23.00         39.75                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                23.50         27.75                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             22.00         21.50                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                   25.50         33.77                              
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              27.50         35.75                              
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                   32.25         37.75                              
 
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino in New York
Editing by Jason Neely and Matthew Lewis)
  
 
 
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